Brazil Serie A: Santos- Cruzeiro
Ahead of Santos' 3-1 win over Ponte Preta in their last home league start I wrote .....
I previewed Santos' 1-1 road draw with leaders Palmeiras in midweek and those notes are reproduced immediately below the "good luck" sign off. They were the better team there , really ought to have come away with all three points and will probably have a top 4 finish as a minimum target for this season. It wasn't until this weekend that they hit their stride last season (they were 17th after 14 games) and we can expect them to repeat that and come on strong over the next couple of months. They are now in fourth, 4-6 points behind the top three and they will be looking to put pressure on that trio, who all face tough looking fixtures tomorrow. Earlier this campaign I spoke about that fantastic run Santos went on last year and their ambitions for this season ............ I was very quick to latch onto Santos as a big improver last season and, after speaking about their potential in June, they won 13 of 14 home games through to the end of October with a whopping 37-10 goal difference. They also made it through to the Copa do Brasil final winning 5/5 at home to Sport, Corinthians, Figueirense, Sao Paulo and Palmeiras, so they were IMO far and away the most impressive home team in Serie A for the final five months of the campaign, therefore, we can forgive them an opening day loss at AMG, but they will be looking for all three points and to get straight back on track today. They have made it clear that they are targeting a run at both league and cup and do not want to give up as much ground this time round as they did at the start of 2015.
They have won 5/6 at home this season , averaging 2.6 goals per game in the five wins and they are clearly getting close to that steamrolling form again. I have to favour them to take all three points from a game like this and to win with a degree of comfort. Ponte Preta played out a hard fought 0-0 draw with Figueirense in midweek on the road and were without four starters in Rene Jr., Felipe Azevedo, Thiago Galhardo and Kadu and whilst I have been unable to get confirmation in terms of a confirmed squad, I believe they are all likely to be sidelined again and in a brief interview, one of the other players spoke about the "injuries they were dealing with", so I have added 2+2 and hopefully got 4 ! That is a lot of experience to lose from an otherwise young team and Azevedo scored in both of PP's two road wins.
Last weekend they travelled to Vitoria and I spoke about how call ups for the Olympics looked set to hurt them .....I have really been very impressed with Santos in the last month and they look better equipped to play on the road than almost any other team in Brazil. However, today they will have to deal with the loss of left back Zeca, midfielder Thiago Maia and much admirer winger Gabriel, who have all joined up with the Olympic squad. Maia has missed only 5 minutes of league action, Zeca has played every minute of 14 of 15 games, he is very important to their transition play and his two goals have both come on the road . Gabriel has five goals and every major scout in Europe watching his every move. These are very big losses, Vitoria are improving, are unbeaten in six and have won 5/6 home games against Santos and as much as I admire the visitors, I do not think that they should be favourite for this game.
They won that 3-2 with three different players on the scoresheet, they followed up in midweek with a 3-0 win over Gama in the Copa do Brasil, they were hugely impressive results under the circumstances and of special note was the hat-trick for recently returned veteran striker Ricardo Oliveira (pictured) in the cup game. He has seen only 145 minutes of action this season, but looks primed and ready to go now and the goals in midweek would have given him a huge confidence boost, Oliveira scored 20 goals in 32 appearances last season, with 15 coming from July onwards and now, with hindsight, getting the 36yo back at this stage of the campaign and "fresh" is probably a blessing,as I doubt he would have been up to 40+ games and the timing, in terms of the Olympic call ups, is absolutely perfect. Santos again had a whole host of chances at Vitoria and are devastating on the break ( see notes regarding the trip to Fluminense below), to score three there, on the road in Brazil, without that trio of players, or a scoring contribution from Oliveira was amazing and they must feel unbeatable right now and each goal is being celebrated with unbridled joy in a very together group.
2013 and 2014 champions Cruzeiro have fallen on hard times and currently sit in the drop zone, the appointment of former Portugal head coach Paulo Bento has not worked out and he was sacked early this week and replaced by Mano Menezes, who had 15 very successful games in charge of Cruz last season, before chasing the mighty dollar in China, that was not a success, beyond a major boost to his bank balance and he and the Belo Horizonte club will be looking to continue where they left off last season. However, it might not be that easy and the only game he lost in that previous spell in charge was the first road game and the club will definitely have all eyes on the visit from Internacional this midweek. For today, I have to favour Santos.
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Good Luck.
Brazil: Serie A : Palmeiras - Santos (written July 12th)
Palmeiras can re-open a three point lead at the top of the table with an eigth straight home win this evening, they are a perfect 7/7 currently with an eyecatching goal difference of 20-4. They have only won 2/6 on the road and face a tough trip to Internacional at the weekend, so it is easy to see them going all out for the points tonight and the win will pretty much ensure they stay top pretty much regardless of what happens on Sunday, but it is not going to be easy.
Hosts certainly do not lack self belief and I spoke about this ahead of a 3-1 win over Santa Cruz last month ............
If Palmeiras are half as good as they think they are, they will win Serie A, which is what head coach Cuca has been telling anyone who would listen that they will do, since pre season. They are up to second, are top scorers in Serie A and would move into first place, at least for 24 hours with all three points today and obviously, they are very motivated to get them. They are a perfect 4/4 at home so far and will have very big support behind them again with a 30,000 + crowd expected, this and the home game with America MG in midweek are very win-able and real potential momentum builders . Cuca has overseen a very big turnover in personnel and results were not immediate, but he has always had peaking for Serie A as his priority and he looks on the money. He has a very offensive minded squad and has named 7-8 forwards for tonight's game .
I spoke about Sao Paulo "only" having a 19 man match day squad on Sunday, well, Palm have gone to the other extreme and named 26 for tonight, probably including the man who makes coffee at the training ground ! That is a big old squad, but I can tell you who are not there and that is defensive midfielder Thiago Santos , winger Róger Guedes and striker Gabriel Jesus, with the trio all suspended. The three have contributed 14 goals between them, including ten (50%) of all on home soil, Gabriel Jesus is top scorer in Brazil , two clear of the pack, despite playing a game less and is the latest player to be dubbed the "new Neymar", he is on fire right now (seemingly on his way to Europe very soon) with seven goals and an assist in five starts and these look big losses, with he and Guedes both ever presents this season.
Now the "bad" news, not many road victories in Brazil, where home wins are once again running comfortably North of 50% (53.96) and Santos are the archetypal Serie A team, strong at home where we regularly back them and poor on the road, where we usually either leave them alone or take them on ! However, they have had nine days to prepare for this, which in Brazil is the equivalent of a month off and are in fine goal scoring form, with 12 in their last four starts, which includes six in two road games, a 3-2 loss to Gremio and a 4-0 win at Fluminense, a match I spoke about last week and there, Santos could have scored eight goals without any exaggeration, they were incredibly dangerous on the break there and Palm, regardless of team news, will be urged forwards by their VERY passionate supporters . This is a good opportunity for Santos to close the gap on the top three and a win would take them into fourth and within three points of the leaders.
Seven home wins is already overachieving, now they meet an opponent full of goals and without three starters and their two biggest offensive threats. Santos lost that shoot out at Gremio in their last road game, but it is hard to see Palmeiras being up to fulfilling their side of the bargain in a real offensive dust up.
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