Another close game at the BayArena on the cards
Jan 14, 2025
Bundesliga : Bayer Leverkusen- FSV Mainz 05
Leverkusen are coming off yet another win, at Dortmund on Friday night ......
Dortmund are unbeaten at home, Leverkusen likewise on the road. The visitors are much the better team IMO and have been newsletter favourites pretty much since Xabi Alonso took over and the hosts are having their usual struggles, when trying to be competitive in both the Bundesliga and Champions League and are 7 points inferior. Bayer closed the gap on leaders Bayern from 9 points to just 4 in the month before the Christmas break and are building up a head of steam in their title defence.
Dortmund will be without suspended Pascal Groß who joined from Brighton in the summer and who has played in every game, in every competition this season, they lost both and conceded 8 goals total in the two Champions League games in which he did not start, winning the other four. The home side also struggled in their last three outings here in Dortmund, drawing with Bayern and Hoffenheim in the league, losing both in regard to xGD and BC's and being defeated 2-3 by Barcelona in a game where a point would have been vital.
That was the 10th straight win in all competitions for Leverkusen and the team who dominated German football last season looks well and truly back and they will again be looking to crank up the pressure on Bayern who play tomorrow. Mainz are going well and are a team who we have a good read on recently and sided with them for back to back wins over Bayern and Frankfurt, the other two top 3 teams going into the Christmas break .....
Mainz beat league leaders Bayern 2-1 last weekend ...........
Mainz have scored 23 goals, the most by far outside the top 8 and 6th highest in the Bundesliga. That is 11 more than at this stage last season, when they did not pass the 23 goal mark until the round of 28, which was once 24yo striker Jonathan Burkardt returned from his long term knee injury and surgery, which saw him miss much of the last two campaigns. He is only one goal off his best ever season of 21/22 when he scored 11 and since his February comeback, he has 17 goals and 4 assists from 24 appearances, a run which earned him his first ever German national team call up in October. Burkardt is being aggressively tracked by a couple of EPL teams and the Mainz resolve might be sorely tested next month.
Bayern are now four games without a clean sheet and the hosts have scored 12 in their last 4 starts. Mainz have also scored in the last 10 h2h meetings, with 2+ goals in five, winning three and losing seven ( no draws) and arguably pose more offensive threat now.
The Bayern goal was a late consolation and Mainz worthy winners with the points taking them up to 7th. Some of their early season performances were not great, but they have grown into the campaign and are coming on strong. This is their 16th straight Bundesliga season and they are looking for a 7th top 9 finish, best of which was 5th, so they have a target.
During the October international break I wrote .........
Frankfurt have scored 14 goals and looked good, offensive numbers back that up, although some of their defensive stats give cause for concern....xP 11,BC's 23-10, ITB 60-62, TIPA 165-185 and only the bottom three teams have given up more TIPA than those 185. However, easy to see why they are dangerous, even from the back foot, as the team is full of pace .Two of their players are officially the top ten fastest in the Bundesliga, four are inside the top 16 and SIX in the top 30 which is insane!
They have gone 4-2-2 subsequently, with a negative goal difference, xGA suggests they should have conceded an additional 5-6 goals and xP puts Mainz ahead by a point and their odds are good today.
They backed those up with a 2-0 defeat of Bochum at the weekend to move up to 6th and they can give Bayer a game tonight in Leverkusen for the third season running, with the last two meetings here ending 2-3 and 2-1.
2.5 units both teams to score @ 1.95 asian line.
Good luck!
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