It is a while since I reproduced a full clubgowi newsletter, so you can read yesterday's notes below in full, five of the seven selections won at odds of 2.25-2.54 , four by two or more goals and all were asian market suggestions where they are no restrictions placed on bettors.
With the restructuring of the subscription options, it is now possible to subscribe to just football, NFL, tennis and the
LGF service and you could receive all clubgowi football selection for 12 months (like those below) for just 449€ (clubgowi newsletter only option) , that should equate to between 1,300-1,500 previews, some of which run to circa 2,000 words like the League 1 outright preview below. At 3-4 previews per 1€, that is terrific value and gives you tremendous flexibility in deciding what to bet.
By the way, Sheffield United now lead League 1 by three points and are trading at 1.57-1.44, so unbelievable value at circa 7.0 + pre season .
Next email will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Tuesday, when I will set out the full schedule for the rest of this week.
Premier League:
West Bromwich Albion- Hull City
City are improving slightly and put in better performances against West Ham and Everton in two of their last three starts, but they have still conceded 12 goals in their last five (two or more in four) and the Hammers who came up short, had enough chances to score 2-3 and I remain happy to take on the Tigers for all the reasons outlined in pre season. When they concede first, like in the game with Manchester City on Boxing Day, there is not much by way of plan B and they are far happier with something to defend, even if it is only 0-0 ! After back to back games againat Arsenal and Manchester United, Albion welcomed the "easier" opposition and got back to winning ways at Southampton on Saturday, that was a fine three points and they can cement their place in the top 8 by following up today. That would enable them to really take the FA Cup seriously next weekend and try to make this a season to remember with their highest Premier League finish ever, a real possibility.
The hosts are 6-3-0 against non top 8 teams since September, scoring at least three goals in all four home games in that sequence, winning each by at least two goals. City are 1-2-7 (should have lost the sole win by 3 !) versus top ten teams, giving up an average of 2.8 goals per game and they have gone 21 games without a clean sheet and have won just 1/17 and that was the aforementioned game where Southampton should have been three up early and out of sight by half time.
1.5 units West Bromwich Albion -0.75 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket.
Everton- Southampton
I expect both teams to score here and feel that "over" offers far and away the best value in the match. Home head coach Ronald Koeman will feel his team let two points slip at Hull City, but his team played Friday and they should have a freshness edge today and he will surely have them pumped facing his former club, especially having lost the reverse fixture at St Mary's a few weeks back. Ahead of their Boxing Day game with Tottenham I spoke about Saints having more offensive threat again.............
Tottenham have scored two or more goals in their last four visits to St Mary's winning three times and having seen a very lively performance from the hosts at Bournemouth last time out where I expected them to struggle, they might need to do so again, to get anything from today's game. In the South Coast derby, Jay Rodriguez returned to form with a powerful showing and two goals and Nathan Redmond put in an eyecatching offensive display and I will be surprised if the duo do not find the net between them.
They led there (before losing 4-1) and again at home to WBA on Saturday, but again dropped all three points. They get Nathan Redmond (see above) back today after his suspension at the weekend, but lose key defender Virgil van Dijk , who has half the big clubs in Europe tracking him, to a ban. He has missed just one minute (after his late dismissal on Saturday) of PL action since joining the club in August 2015 and will be a big loss defensively, especially with other defenders also being monitored by other clubs and possibly distracted.
1.25 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
Championship:
Nottingham Forest- Barnsley
Blackburn Rovers- Newcastle United
As the saying goes, "in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king" and in holiday football terms, the team with an extra 24 hours recovery time is similarly advantaged. Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest met on Friday night and both would probably have been able to fit in a training session yesterday and should have an edge not just in freshness, but prepardness for today. Forest will be very focused on three points today, but have not kept a clean sheet since March at the City Ground and are hardly helped in that regard by the suspension to central defender Matt Mills and the hosts have given up an average of two goals per game in the six starts in which he has played 10 minutes or less this season.
Barnsley play a very open style, something I have discussed several times previously and their 24 Championship games have averaged 3.29 goals, only leaders Newcastle United have scored more, but they conceded five at home to Forest (2-5) and they are also without a starting centre back today in suspended Marc Roberts.
1.25 units Nottingham Forest -Barnsley "over" 3 goals 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket.
You do not need me to tell you that Newcastle United are the biggest club in the Championship, with the best squad, head coach, support, ground etc and they should never be playing football at this level and will not be for much longer. They have had the odd blip this season, especially at home, where teams raise their game, but have tended to go on a charge after each defeat and have won 6/6 and 10/11 after early season losses, they came up short to Sheffield Wednesday at Christmas, but saw off Forest 3-1 on Friday and will be looking not just for a similar run now, but also for revenge after losing their home game with Rovers at the end of November. He would say otherwise, but I feel Rafa Benitez underestimated the opposition that day, his team were looking for a 10th straight win and he rested six players. There is no danger of that today and with Rovers missing six players this afternoon, having had less recovery time and facing protests, before , during and after the game from supporters against the owners and having conceded three in each of their last two home starts at Ewood Park versus #2 Brighton and #3 Reading, leaders United will feel hard done by without more of the same.
1.5 units Newcastle United -1 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
League 1:
Bury -Sheffield United
I previewed United's hard earned 1-0 win over Northampton Town on New Year's Eve where again they took the lead late, as has been their modus operandi for much of this season as I outlined in those notes..............
Sheffield United were my very strong pre season pick for League 1 and my original notes are reproduced at the foot of this email, they fell out of the blocks and gave the rest of the division pretty much a 6-11 point head start. Now they are now up to second, just a single point off first place and are trading at circa 1.70-1.90 to finish the season as champions, so terrific value for us with the Blades at 7.0+. They have upgraded the squad since I wrote those notes and have actually played three of the other top five teams away from home , which means they have home games against each to come and they have scored an average of 2.67 goals per game across their last 15 competitive starts. United are out of all cup competitions now, so no distractions and it is all about top 2, hopefully top 1, for this massive club.
With third hosting first later today, this is a huge opportunity for United to not just gain an edge on one or both, but to actually hit the front for the first time.
Almost 26,000 fans watched their Boxing Day win over Oldham Athletic and another bumper crowd will be in attendance today and will be demanding another three points. They started with a 3-5-2 formation, but were very fluid again, constantly changing shape (more about this later) and there are few teams in England so flexible. This is massive for Chris Wilder who is facing his former club for the first time since winning League 2 with Town last season, he says he still has a soft spot for the Cobblers, but that he wants to "put the boot in " today !
Despite winning 14 of 19 starts, the head coach has openly stated this week that he feels the club have not come close to showing their full potential yet this season and added :"We want to get as high as we can as early as we can and stay there. "This is a really important time for us now, to try and cement our position up there and show that consistency we have of late. "We’ve set a high bar and it’s important we keep striving to reach those levels.”
Wilder is very astute tactically, makes fantastic adjustments "in running", especially at the break and with substitutions and United have a +/-0 first half goal difference which zooms up to +19 in the second half, at home, those numbers are 0 (again) and +12. Hopefully, ideally today, those numbers are mirrored by Town who are +6 and -6 in all games respectively and have conceded 15 of 17 road goals in the final hour of games. United are 14-1 (scored-conceded) in the final 40 here at Bramall Lane and Northmapton are 0-5 away in the 15 minutes immediately after the break.
I expect United to win again, but they should offer really good value "in play" and Wilder, facing his former club, about whom he probably knows more than any man alive and with the massive prize of top spot and before a huge Blades crowd, there should be no easing off. I will already be at Griffin Park for the late game by the time this match is at the break, but will be taking time out to "press" on United "in running" and feel we might see something special in the second 45 minutes. That is the better way to approach this IMO
Town played well and were well organised, but if there was to be a winner, it was only going to be the Blades, who in addition to scoring their goal, also hit the woodwork twice after the break. Three points today will ensure they stay top ahead of a really tough trip to in form Southend United on Saturday.
United sold out all 2,055 tickets for today's game 12 days ago without them going on general sale and could have taken 5,000+ to the game and I would be surprised, if another good few hundred did not find their way into home areas . Bury had lost 12 in a row , before back to back road draws over the holiday period, they have at least stopped the rot and will be looking for a debut win for interim (until the end of the season) head coach Chris Brass. He fielded the same starting eleven on both Boxing Day and Saturday and has got them playing a very hard pressing style, they saw little of the ball at Bradford City (38%) last time out and worked incredibly hard for that point. Travelling up to City for that and back, with two hours less recovery time (United played at lunchtime) is not ideal with no rotation, especially playing a bigger and stronger squad. Wilder rotated his 11 and rested a couple of key players at the weekend and can freshen up the team for today, both he and his number 2 Alan Knill (who was there for 7 yeras as player and head coach) are former Bury coaches and know the opposition very well indeed. We can go with ............
1.25 units Sheffield United -1.25 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
But with United so strong after the break and Bury seemingly sure to tire and setting up defensively early, the real value will again probably be with the visitors at half time/ in running, so I will be looking to also "press".
1.25 units Sheffield United at the first asian line quoted at odds of above 2.0 at half time, as long as we are still playing 11 v 11.
Charlton Athletic- Bristol Rovers
After four points over the holiday season, Karl Robinson will be looking for his debut home win today and a double over Rovers, with Athletic having won 5-1 at the Memorial Stadium in November. Charlton took a point at in form Southend United (unbeaten in 12) on Saturday, where they trailed at the half, but totally dominated after and were only denied all three points by a MOTM performance from home keeper Ted Smith. Robinson said he was pleased with the“intensity and the desire and the application of the performance" adding that they " showed they had energy and that they were fearless and that’s what I want to play like."
I think this is a big game for the head coach and his players, his team can move up to onto the heels of the playoff spots with all three points and show home fans, and a big crowd is expected, how they have improved. More importantly, it will probably help ensure that promises made to Robinson, that he can spend "heavily" in the window and he said on Saturday night that he was expecting to bring in a "lot of players" , are kept. Rovers are in good form at home, the loss to Athletic aside, but are struggling on the road and have lost their last three away starts, conceding 9 goals and two of those came against teams in the drop zone. Robinson has already hosted Rovers once this season at his former club MK Dons, where his side led twice by two goals , but had to settle for a 3-3 draw, he will have learned plenty from that , his team could not win a home game for love or money at the time , but had several chances for a three goal lead and he will (hopefully) ensure that Athletic are not so wasteful.
1.25 units Charlton Athletic -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
League 1 outright 2016-17 (written July 28th)
In last season's League 1 preview I spoke about "identikit" promotion teams ......
Last ten automatic promoted teams from L1 have consisted of two who were relegated the previous season , one who was third and another who finished 7th, so, only one team who competed in the playoffs , which I feel is noteworthy, one out of 15 who were competitive the year before managed to finish top 2 in the following campaign and that was a Brentford team who were an exceptional L1 team and thrived in the Championship the next season and this is obviously not an easy division in which to put in a big push over back to back seasons.
That might make things difficult for Chesterfield, Sheffield United and Swindon Town and there are other reasons to look beyond these three anyway, but I will save those for our match reviews later in the season.
The other six automatically promoted teams all finished betweem 10th-15th and with the exception of Bournemouth, who were heavily bank rolled, you could make a case for the other five all being "big" clubs at this level. Spots 10-15 were taken by Fleetwood, Barnsley, Gillingham, Doncaster, Walsall and Oldham last season, you could make a case for Barnsley fitting the "bigger" club mould and they could go well. They collected 36 points over the second half of the season, which would have equated to 5th over a full 46 games and boss Lee Johnson got them up and running after joining in February from Oldham Athletic and they have potential.....for example, all 2,000 tickets for the opening day trip to Chesterfield will be sold by the end of today.
However, their squad looks a little lacking in depth and this needs to be addressed , but they are looking at a potential windfall due to a sell on clause for John Stones and this could be as much as £4-5m if he moves, as expected, to one of the big 4 and those funds could go a long way in League 1.
I can also make a case for Bradford City who have thrilled everyone with their cup exploits in recent seasons and just missed out on the post season last time round, finishing 7th. They are another big club in L1 terms and meet most of the criteria, but their pitch was in a terrible condition last season and despite heavy investment in that during the off season, there are still concerns that it will again cut up , which will not do them any favours. A futher concern about both the Bantams and Tykes, is the number of intense Yorkshire derbies in this division with Sheffield United and Doncaster Rovers all in the third tier, Chesterfield is only a bus ride from Sheffield and these are a lot of matches to play where more than just three points are up for grabs.
Anyway, I think City and Barnsley could go well and I might back one of them later in the season, but for now I want to look elsewhere.....
The two automatically promoted teams last season were relegated Wigan Athletic and newly promoted Burton Albion, Barnsley took the third spot via the playoffs.
In my opinion, what is now three relegated teams getting straight back up in the last six years via the top two places, is a slightly skewed number, as both Wigan and Wolves still had EPL parachute payments, those funds give teams a huge advantage in the Championship, at League 1 level, it means that the gap is seismic and that clubs can pay 10-12 players each an annual salary equal to half the entire playing budget of some rivals, should they so wish and it is very far from a level playing field. That is not an issue this year and the three relegated clubs are not exactly flush with funds.
Three of the teams that finished 10th-15th the previous season (see above) were again competitive and finished 3rd, 6th and 9th (Gillingham were in the top six all season until the final two weeks) and the biggest of those six clubs by far, Barnsley, were promoted.
The three who came up short in the playoffs the previous year ( see above) again really struggled and finished 11th, 16th and 18th and we should have loud alarm bells going off in our heads about the chances of Walsall, Millwall and Bradford City this time round. The team who fared best of those playoff failures last season was Sheffield United, and their 11th place was within eight points of the top six and in hindsight,maybe that was not so bad, although don't try telling that to any fan of the Blades, who have, with good reason, ideas well above their current station.
Their finish also meant they take up one of those six 10th- 15th spots alongside .......Rochdale, Port Vale, Peterborough United, Bury and Southend United .
Sheffield United are the biggest of those by some way, infact, they are the best supported club outside the top two divisions and can easily command attendances well north of 20,000 when doing well and not far short when struggling (19,803 average last season) and they have already sold some 14,000 season tickets for this campaign. They are favourites to win League 1, quite rightly in my opinion and I feel they offer great value at circa 7.0 and my own odds would be closer to 4.50-5.0 and that is a no profit margin book.
There is no missing out in the playoffs this time round to deal with, they have a new head coach who knows the lower leagues well and who had huge success last season, the board have allowed him to upgrade the squad, they meet all our criteria and in addition, have four less Yorkshire derby/local games to play (again, see above) after the success of Barnsley and failure of Doncaster Rovers. They have to go very close and I would be more than a little surprised did they not finish in the top 3. United finished 3-5-7-5 in their four L1 season prior to the last campaign and I think a fifth year at this level after coming close four times just wore them out, they were in the top flight a decade ago and went close to getting back into the PL in three of their four Championship seasons in the interim period and this is a club who should always be competing at the upper end of the second tier as a minimum and they should get the chance next season !
Chris Wilder is the man with the task of with getting them up, he was in charge of Northampton Town last season, they won L2 by 13 points and went 16-8-0 from Christmas onwards and the head coach's profile went through the roof. He is a
Sheffield lad, born and raised in the city and was with the Blades for seven years as a player, a lifetime supporter of the club, he turned down at least one Championship to accept his dream job. Get them promoted this season and he will be idolised forever in the red half of the city.
Wilder's first decision and made within hours of taking charge, was to appoint prolific striker Billy Sharp as captain and he is said to have thrived on the appointment and responsibility and looked the best he has for several years in pre season, where he has been scoring freely, he has 74 goals in 126 appearances at L1 level and will be expected to contribute 20 + this season.
Mark Dufffy ( 45 appearances in Burton's L1 promotion winning team), Chris Hussey (played 50 times for Bury last season) have been signed and bring with then huge experience and real strength on the flanks, central defence was a big issue last year and three centrebacks in James Wilson, Jake Wright and Jack O'Connor were brought in, the last named from Brentford, he performed well for the Bees when called upon in the Championship, but would have been 4th or 5th on the list at Griffin Park and opted to move to secure regular first team football and he will add a touch of class at the lower level. Most eyecatching appointment and the one that has got even the most cynical United supporter salivating, is the addition of John Fleck from Coventry City , where the central midfielder won every award going last season, everything went through Fleck in his four years at City and he was the engine of the team. As a 16 yo at Glasgow Rangers he was already in the first team and shortly afterwards was named #7 in the top 50 young players in the world, the six above him on that list were Hernanes, Benzema, David Silva, Radamel Falcao, Douglas Costa and Jack Wilshere ! Things have not worked out quite as planned/hoped , but last year was his best season in many years and at 24, he is still a young man and a way off his prime and now has a bigger stage and more high profile club to perform at. These look very good appointments indeed and no one has been allowed to leave yet, a couple are being chased by clubs further up the food chain, but if they do leave, it will not be cheaply and they will be replaced and maybe already have been.
Update: Wilder has spent most of the last month chasing Leon Clarke of Bury and it looks like the deal was completed yesetrday, but not fully confirmed as I type. He scored 15 goals in 32 appearances for a struggling Bury side and has 70 in 137 starts at this level and he and Sharpe look the best partnership and by some way, outside the top two divisions . The two have always been especially prolific early season and that could be key, if this sleeping giant can be awoken early and build up just a little momentum, it will be very difficult to stop.
Ok, I will say it, Sheffield United will win League 1 !
3 units Sheffield United to win outright 7.0 general quote, there is a little bigger in a place or two.
