Top of the table clash in the Bundesliga.......are Bayern really back?
Sep 28, 2024
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich- Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern are the hottest team in Europe so far this season with 29 goals and a perfect 6 from 6 start in all competitions, but we know two things, they are not as good defensively and they have already conceded twice in two of those games and Leverkusen were the best team in German by a country mile last season and look of a similar level this time around.
The visitors have been scoring almost as freely too, they have lost one game, 3-2 at home to Leipzig but that was merely a blip and the following week I wrote about the unfairness of that defeat ......
Hoffenheim couldn't find that desired second goal in a 3-1 defeat at Frankfurt going into the international break, but the truth is that they were well beaten and now they face a very hungry, hurt and strong champion who have had to live with a 3-2 home defeat to Leipzig, their first domestic loss in 15 months(1), for two weeks. It had to come some time, but was no less painful when it did. Also, the unjustness made it even harder to bear, they led 2-0 at half time, had 70% possession in the second half, winning xG 1.3 -0.3 , ITB 9-3 after the break and lost 0-3! Sometimes the ball is round, everything a team touches goes in the net and there is nothing much that can be done, just accept it, know that the football gods owe you and move on. Hopefully, an early payback today!
Leverkusen have averaged 2.61 goals per Bundesliga game since the start of last season and already have five and an xGF of 6.7 in this campaign and hard to make a case yet for them having regressed from the greatest season in their history. After such a season you would have expected Leverkusen to have been picked clean this summer by the cream of European club football, but that has not happened and I assume that was the assurance given to head coach Xabi Alonso before he decided to stay and turned down moves to a couple of massive clubs, including Liverpool. In fact, they look stronger overall with a +30m € net spend.
Bayer have scored 10 goals in their last four visits to Hoffenheim, with 3+ goals in each and a repeat is on the cards.
They have scored 12 goals, 4 in each of three subsequent games and I expect them to have plenty of offensive joy today. They took 4 points and scored 5 goals against Bayern last season and are looking to score 2+ against the Bavarian giants for the 4th game running and at the odds offered, that has to be a very solid bet.
2.75 units Bayer Leverkusen to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.23 asian line. They have to be overpriced for me at odds north of 4.3 to win, but the two goal quote feels so good, I will stick with that.
Good luck!
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