Premier League update:
Mar 27, 2024
Premier League update......written March 26th
Last summer I previewed all 20 EPL teams for the season ahead, looked at a number of markets and finished my notes on August 9th with .......
EPL: Title winner
This is the last of the preseason markets that I will preview and I have already laid my cards on the table in terms of the title race, but it was hardly earth shattering news, writing last week ..........
Forget about the order of the respective teams for now, I see the EPL in five groups.......
Title contenders: City/Arsenal/Liverpool.
Top 4-6 : Newcastle/ Chelsea/ Man United.
Other European spot contention: Tottenham/ Brighton/Villa/Brentford.
Mid table: West Ham/Bournemouth/Fulham
In the relegation discussion: Burnley/Luton/ Sheffield United/Wolves/Palace/ Forest/Everton
Almost any team could move up or down a group, by which I mean, Villa could play above themselves and push for top 6 or even a Champions League place, or they could struggle with the schedule and fall into mid-table, but I do not see any team making a two group swing. The relegation group is the biggest, because it always is, the Big 6, which might now be a 7 are secure from those sort of fears and possible 1-2 others, but everyone else "could" get sucked into the relegation scrap and they all come into the season with first priority being survival, despite what some might say publicly.
I am only interested in those three teams today and my original early notes on that trio went a lot like this ......
Liverpool
Liverpool have said goodbye to James Milner, Jordan Henderson and Robert Firmino in this window and that is a lot of experience to lose, but something had to be done, when, after winning both domestic cups in 21/22 and finishing runner up in both the EPL and Champions League . They lost in R4 of the FA and League Cup, the R16 in Europe and failed to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 2016-17, with a 5th place finish in the EPL. Even that looked unlikely for some time and they had some real issues defensively which I wrote about multiple times. However, they were the best team in the EPL from offensive set pieces, remained very tough to beat at Anfield (one defeat in 42 EPL games) and were the hardest hit team by injury in the EPL and by quite some way. 75 goals scored is not a bad tally , but it was a 19 fall off from the previous campaign and 22 came in just three games, huge wins over Bournemouth, Manchester United and Leeds United and they missed the most BC's last season, so there is some big upward potential there. If they can keep all or most of Salah, Jota, Nunez, Diaz and Gakpo fit, then surely a bigger and more balanced return and new signings Dominik Szoboszlai (RB Leipzig) and Alexis Mac Allister (Brighton), who cost a combined £100m, will be expected to provide plenty of ammunition.
Manchester City
City won the EPL for the 5th time in six seasons and also their first Champions League title, their holy grail, the trophy that they had craved and hunted down for a decade. Erling Haaland arrived and scored 52 goals (say what!) in his first season. Pep surprised all of us by going with his version of the long ball at times to play through the press and maybe we will see more of that. Only deals of note have seen Mateo Kovacic arrive and captain Ilkay Gundogan depart in like-for like deals, but Kovacic has been less consistent/reliable and the German provides FAR more goal threat. They remain the team to beat, but KDB is now 32 yo and seemed less than happy at times, they will miss Gundogan IMO and they now have the title they wanted above all others and I wonder if that will have an influence . Only Real Madrid has won back to back CL titles since 1990 and I wonder if City will again see that as their #1 priority and a chance to claim a spot in history.
Arsenal
Arsenal looked like ending City's stranglehold on the league title last season and entered April with an eight point lead (City game in hand), but the momentum had swung before that, February had been a pivotal month, with some defensive issues showing up and their press not being as effective . The Gunners were
16-2-1 with a 45-16 goal difference in the first half of the season, 10-4-5 and 43-27 in the second, averaging just 1.5 points pg over the last 10 and conceding 1.7 goals. I had given a warning about this early in the year............
Arsenal did fade at the end of last season with 15 points from their final 10 games, losing to four teams who finished bottom half of the table and the Gunners will be mindful and wary of that and young squads can lose confidence as quickly as they find it and they are the youngest in the EPL by some way.
So they played identically over the last 10 games in each of the last two campaigns and that is something that has to be addressed.
Arsenal have spent big, £200m+ on Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber that has helped the problems at the back to a degree, but Granit Xhaka has moved on and personally, I would like to have seen at least one more experienced player come in, with so many youngsters in the team.Maybe that is being too picky, a very young squad will have learned a lot from last season and through the opening 19 games, they were the best team I saw live by some way. They scored 88 goals last season, which was second only to City and 20-30 (massive number) more than the other two top 4 teams and it is difficult to see too much fall off in that number and they are genuine title contenders.
Update:
Liverpool have done no further business of note and overall not addressed those defensive issues which cost them 47 goals last season and to be honest, they were fortunate it was only that many. In the middle of that backline Virgil van Dijk is not the player he was, is now 32 yo and at times shirked his duties IMO. Ibrahima Konate doesn't play up to his height and size and he, Joel Matip and Joe Gomez, can be termed injury prone. There is only one real RB at the club and great offensive player that he is and incredibly fun to watch, Trent Alexander-Arnold cannot defend and call me old fashioned, but that should be a prerequisite for a full back.
Having said all that, I still see the Reds as contenders, they might score an additional 15-20 goals and that is going to take a lot of pressure off the backline and win them games . Last season's 5th place was the lowest recorded in a full season since Jurgen Klopp arrived and the fewest points gained, the only other campaign his team won under 70 points was followed the next season by 92 and two pieces of silverware and he will be looking and planning for a similar reaction. They also have no Champions League and the Europa League might be considered a bigger distraction, given the Thursday games, but for a club like Liverpool, it is not and is kind of an embarrassment , they will doubtless want to do well, but fairly low priority IMO and full focus on a return to the CL and a title push.
City have added to their defensive depth with the big money signing of 21 yo CB Josko Gvardiol who is viewed as the best young defensive talent in Europe by many knowledgeable viewers and is quick and technically and physically strong, he is also left footed and that gives real options at the back for City and the player that Liverpool should probably have signed! They were the best team in Europe last season and might, with that signing, now be stronger, but Gundogan still feels like a big loss, they led a charmed life with injuries last season (along with Brighton) and these things have a habit of evening out and I still feel that the CL will be their #1 target. I might be clutching at straws will all this, but also, Erling Haaland scored only one goal in his last eight starts and a chance that teams were slowly coming to grips with him and/or that the grueling schedule took a toll, he played 61 games last season, only 32 the season before and 53 for City alone in 22/23 , which was some dozen more than any previous club campaign. Further, no team has ever won four top flight titles in England , City will become the sixth team to try and that might be an incentive, but history is against them and they have needed to come from very big point deficits to claim two of their last three titles and if that happens again, surely lightning is not going to strike a third time. Their numbers for xGD were down last season, lowest under Pep and that all offers hope, someone is going to need 85+ points to beat them and possibly 4-5 more, but it feels doable and time for a rival to step up and see out the 38 games. City will also have the distraction of a first Club World Cup in December in Jeddah.
Not "official" yet, but Arsenal have added to their options with the signing of goalkeeper David Raya from Brentford. Aaron Ramsdale played his part in that end of season fall off (see above) with some errors and he has made a few more in preseason , Raya also has great and better distribution and if he had an extra year on his contract, would have been the 3rd or 4th most expensive keeper in history and not the 8th. It is good business and Mikel Arteta and his team have addressed many of the "holes" in this squad and increased competition in a group who are very young, still improving and came so very close last season. They have won some silverware already with that Community Shield penalty shoot out victory over City and whilst the game is almost meaningless in itself, the fact that they bested City is big and was celebrated accordingly and I am sure that the Gunners see it as a major breakthrough.
They look to be without Gabriel Jesus for a couple of weeks , but were as effective in his absence last season and have Havertz to step into the role if required and multiple scoring options, even without a natural #9. They also start against Forest/Palace/Fulham and can have no complaints about that, it is a chance to hit the ground running and build confidence and Arteta has worked tirelessly to build bridges with supporters who felt unhappy and a disconnect with the club and the mood inside the Emirates is far more upbeat, nowadays, even buoyant! Under the head coach they have improved each (full) season 61 pts to 69 to 84 and xP suggests they were worth a couple more in each of those two and if they can avoid that last ten game fall off this time round, they have a great chance to push towards 90 points.
City are favourites, no issues with that and hard to argue against it, but that is not the same as being of value and odds of circa 1.80 feel too skinny when they have had to play major catch up twice in recent seasons. I love the goal threat from Liverpool and feel they will go close, but the defence is not good enough for me. At the odds quoted Arsenal look decent value and just have to go close and I like their opening fixtures, it is a chance to build up a head of steam and for all the newcomers to bed in.
2.5 units Arsenal to win the EPL 5.50-6.0 general quote.
I can start by saying that I am pretty pleased with my notes on all 20 teams and feel that they were more or less all on the money, but it is the title race I want to return to today. The current league table looks a lot like this .........
| 2023/24 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Arsenal | 28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 70 | 24 | +46 | 64 | WWWW | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 11 | ||
| 2 | Liverpool | 28 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 65 | 26 | +39 | 64 | XWWW | 14 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 38 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 14 | ||
| 3 | Manchester City | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 63 | 28 | +35 | 63 | XWWW | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 34 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 16 | ||
| 4 | Aston Villa | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 60 | 42 | +18 | 56 | XLWW | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 19 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 23 | ||
It is indeed a three "horse" race with 10 games remaining and looks likely to go down to the wire. Best odds for all three teams are 2.25 City, 3.20 Liverpool, 4.0 Arsenal which are as close to a 100% book as makes no difference and everyone else is quoted at 500-1+.
We can look at remaining fixtures and any "distractions" the trio might face in this update and also how all three have performed in relation to expected levels, but I guess the biggest news since the original notes is that Jurgen Klopp will be leaving Liverpool at the end of this season. He has coached the Reds since 2015 and won three domestic cups , including this season's EFL Cup, a Champions League and one EPL title in 2019-20 and his nine seasons in charge have seen Liverpool finish 8-4-4-2-1-3-2-5-2 in the league. They had not won a title in 30 years prior to 2020 which seems incredible given their standing on the world football stage and Klopp's record is pretty good, but perhaps not quite as good as most of us might have thought without first doing some research. Having said that, he is hugely popular at the club and in the city and there will not be many dry eyes in the house come that final game at Anfield on May 19th regardless of what further trophies are won this season.
Liverpool remain in the Europa League where they have a quarter final with Atalanta. City are still in three competitions, with an FA Cup semi final meeting with Chelsea to come, along with a Champions League clash with Real Madrid. The Gunners are still in Europe too and are pitted against Bayern Munich and Harry Kane in the last eight of the Champions League.
Remaining EPL fixtures....
Arsenal:
Home: Luton/Villa/Chelsea/
Away: Man City/Brighton/Wolves/
Liverpool:
Home: Brighton/Sheff Utd/ Palace/Tottenham/Wolves
Away: Man Utd/ Fulham/ Everton/West Ham/ Villa
City:
Home: Arsenal/Villa/Luton/Wolves/
Away: Palace/Tottenham/Brighton/
You do not have to be Holmes or Poirot to work out that Arsenal have the toughest run in, or Liverpool the easiest, with the City- Gunners clash at the Etihad this Sunday hanging over the title race like the Sword of Damocles.
City also have the experience edge with 5 title wins in the last 6 seasons, whereas just one in 33 campaigns for Liverpool and none in two decades for Arsenal!
Priorities:
This is a little odd and seems strange to even say, for Liverpool, who are not in the Champions League, it is 100% the league, but I would say the same about Arsenal, even with involvement in football's biggest international club competition. City have been there and have the (multiple) EPL winning tee shirts, but only one Champions League win and whilst it came last season, winning back to back is rare in modern football, only Real Madrid have managed it since 1990 and it would cement City's and Pep Guardiola's place in history and might taste especially sweet with the final being held at their second home, Wembley Stadium. That is not to say that they do not want the double or even treble, but if push came to shove, I suspect it would be the CL first and EPL second. Their game with Tottenham already needs to be rearranged and there is a chance they will be faced with 10-11 games inside 37 days to finish their season and something might have to give.
Expected numbers
As with almost all teams at the top of any league table the trio come in at a little less than for actual numbers, with Arsenal having an xP of 61, City 59 and Liverpool 55. The stand out number is the Reds xGA which suggests they should have conceded an extra 9 goals, but with City and the Gunners coming in pretty much where they should be defensively and that tallies with my own thinking and what is plain to see with Liverpool. Their offensive prowess and a bit of good fortune has papered over some defensive cracks and last season they conceded 47 goals and personally, I do not feel too much has changed.
How much is left in the tank ?
Arsenal have played "just" 40 games this season and might have 15 remaining. Through 14 games they had used 23 players, that is now up to 25.
City have played 45 and might still have as many as 17 still to play. The Sky Blues have been lucky with injuries this season, losing the 4th fewest days to players sidelined. They had used 25 players through 14 games and that remains unchanged.
Liverpool have played 46, with a maximum 15 remaining. They have been the hardest hit by injury of the trio by some way. Liverpool had used 23 players after 14 rounds, but have subsequently bloodied another six, mainly teenagers.
They have had just 8 players who have been in the matchday squad for 39+ games and still have four senior players absent, City have had 14 in for 39 games, Arsenal 13 for 37+(fewer total games played).
Only one Liverpool player has had more than 2,000 minutes of EPL game time, City have 5 and Arsenal 6. But the Gunners have had far fewer demands overall.
None of the trio added to their first team squad in the January transfer window.
Conclusion
Liverpool have had a tougher time of things of that there is there is no doubt, with Klopp doing a fine juggling act and bravely introducing his youngsters at times, but they rode their luck in three 1-1 draws with City (twice) and Arsenal and lost the other h2h game and look the less complete team, especially, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, defensively.
It is difficult not to see this as a pivotal weekend in the title race and it could be a big one for the Reds, they host Brighton who have lost 5 of their last 6 on the road, conceding 14 goals and the hosts know that one or both of City and Arsenal will drop points. If you favour Liverpool to win the league and also on Sunday, now is the time to bet. However, we do know that Brighton are better than their current form, they steadied the ship before the international break with two 1-0 home wins and they are good under Roberto De Zerbi after an 8+day break, losing just one of 13 games (2-1 at Manchester City) and scoring five goals and taking four points from two games with Liverpool in that sequence . They have not lost to the Reds in five h2h meetings, scoring 2+ goals in each, or in three visits to Anfield scoring six. That is where the positive news for Seagulls (and City and Arsenal) fans ends, as Brighton are sorely missing Karou Mitoma, Solly March, Joao Pedro and Jack Hinshelwood and no signs of an immediate return from any of the quartet. Pedro has been pictured in the gym this week, but sitting on some equipment for a snap is not the same as training out on the grass. Regardless of which, this is probably not as easy as it looks on paper and odds of sub 1.40 feel skinny. The hosts have conceded in their last six games at Anfield and in 7 of their 11 home wins this season and a better option and quote, if you want to side with Liverpool, is adding both teams to score @ 2.54 asian line ( 2.50 general quote ) and that would be a 2.25 unit suggestion.
In spite of that tough remaining schedule, my own thinking is that any value in the title race remains with Arsenal and they have been the better team in all three EPL games with the other title contenders this season. City had long been their nemesis, but it felt like something had changed with that Community Shield win at Wembley last August, the trophy itself means little, but it was celebrated by the Gunners as a major event and because it broke the seal against City, to some degree, it was! They followed up by winning the league game at the Emirates 1-0 and the scoreline doesn't do full justice to Arsenal who allowed City just 3 attempts ITB (inside the box). Ahead of that Bukayo Saka was a doubt and sat out that game, he is once again nursing a knock, along with Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Magalhaes, with the trio all withdrawing from international call ups. They can ill afford to be without any of them in such a huge game, but two withdrawals were just said to be precautionary and that is quite common for players from big teams during the March international break. Saka misses very few games, just that City game in the last three seasons.
City are also waiting on Ederson, Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish and Kyle Walker who left the England game early on Saturday with a hamstring issue and returned to Manchester. Walker has missed 7 home games in the last 17 months, City have conceded in six of those and it includes their only defeat at the Emirates in 23 months, 2-1 to Brentford (no shame in that!). His loss will be hard felt, especially if Martinelli plays.
I am still leaning towards Arsenal as offering value, in both the title race, where they should be the fresher of the three down the home straight and 90 minute markets on Sunday, as they finally truly believe that they can beat City, but it is impossible to bet until we have more concrete news about the likely starting 11's, so we will return to this at the weekend.
Good luck!
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