Norwich 43/ 35 194-160 33-28

**Bournemouth 38/ 37 160-116 37-19

Brentford 38/ 49 168-119 41-14

Bristol C 33/ 24 137-184 25-36

Cardiff 29/ 35 165-122 31-26

Birmingham 23/19 141-155 21-33

Coventry 23/14 120-158 27-45

QPR 20/29 152-160 36-39 

Nottm. Forest 18/30 148-138 31-32

***Rotherham 16/20 136-143 27-46

Wycombe 12/18 139-216 24-38

 

 

21 rounds played.

 

*Sheffield Wednesday started with a 12 point deduction (now reduced to six) , so their xP of 9 , is actually 15 (15-6 =9).

 

** Played just 20 games.

 

*** Played only 19 games.

 

Teams are in league table order, there are four sets of numbers alongside each team, the first is their actual points total, followed by their xP in blue type, ITB numbers created and conceded follow in dark black type, followed by BC's for and against in red.

 

For example, leaders Norwich have 43 points, but should have 35, they have created 194 attempts from ITB, giving up 160, with 33 BC's , whilst conceding 28.

 

*Sheffield Wednesday started with a 12 point deduction (now reduced to six) , so their xP of 9 , is actually 15 (15-6 =9).

 

 

Brentford 49 pts / Bournemouth 37/ Cardiff 35/ Norwich 35 / Blackburn 35 /Preston 35/ Barnsley 34.

 

 

Brentford +49/ Bournemouth +44/ Cardiff +43/ Norwich +34/ Blackburn +27/ Reading +23/ Swansea +21 .

 

Millwall (+18) and Forest (+10) are the only bottom half teams on positive numbers within this category.

 

 

Huddersfield -15/ Derby -16/ Luton -27 /Coventry -38/ Bristol City -47 / Sheffield Wednesday -59/ Wycombe -77.

 

Bristol City are the only top half of the table team on a negative number and a big one !

 

 

Brentford +27/ Bournemouth +18/ Middlesbrough +16/ Watford +15/ Blackburn +13/  Reading +13 / Swansea +8.

 

Millwall(+6 and Luton (+4) are the only bottom half of the table teams with + numbers.

 

 

-11 Bristol City/ -12 Birmingham/ -14 Wycombe / -14 Derby / -16 Sheffield Wednesday / -18 Coventry/ -19 Rotherham.

 

Bristol City (-11) and Barnsley (-8) are the only top half teams on negative BC numbers.

 

 

Norwich are decent offensively, but the number of ITB attempts and BC's given up are not what we would expect from a team looking to secure automatic promotion. City's offensive numbers have also tailed off across their last three starts with 7.0 ITB attempts created per game and 0.67 BC's down from 9.61 and 1.72 prior to that.

 

Swansea are up to second , but they are a net -12 ITB through their last 5 starts, creating only 4.2 per game (joint divisional low for that sequence) and that is not good enough.

 

Bournemouth are a net +20 ITB and +8 for BC's over their last 4 starts and come out second overall in all three statistical categories.

 

Brentford have a whopping 12 point lead in the xP table, are top for net ITB and BC numbers and are best both offensively and defensively in the latter, are unbeaten in 15 games and in the semi finals of the League Cup (knocked out 4 Premier league teams whilst playing their B team in each). They still have a lot of improvement to come .

 

Watford's numbers have shot up and they are +15 ITB and +10 for BC's (good number) across their last five starts and dominated Norwich statistically in a Boxing Day win over the leaders.

 

Reading are dealing with a lot of injuries at present, especially in the striker department, but I am still not sure that explains only 1 BC created in four starts, just because they have no one to convert them, doesn't mean they cannot create opportunities.

 

Stoke are a big commanding side, with a tactically aware and decent head coach, but they are a net -11 ITB for their last 5 starts, created a joint league low 0.8 BC's in that sequence and they have a bit too much of a negative mindset for my liking.

 

Middlesbrough have created the 4th most BC's in the division which is not what you expect from a Neil Warnock led team, "Colin " is not everyone's cup of tea but he is vastly experienced and has been hugely successful in the Championship and with some support in the upcoming window (there are quite a few rumours around......about outgoing too) , a top 6 push is not impossible, but they look just off that level at present.

 

Bristol City are bottom 7 for BC's, bottom 3 in ITB and 8th worst for xP and we have been here before with them, they tend to overachieve early season, but the numbers always catch up with them in the end.Across their last four starts they are a net -23 ITB (giving up a Championship high 40 attempts) and have created just 2 BC's................not good enough !

 

Barnsley have crept up to 10th , they are 36-18 (good numbers) for ITB across their last 5 starts "winning" each, look on the up and head coach Valérien Ismaël is doing an eye-catching job. I am not sure that there is much upside from their current position, but I would be loath to oppose them at present.

 

Blackburn are entertaining and their games have seen the most ITB attempts and they have created the most of those and are also joint highest for BC attempts in the Championship. They deserve more for this creativity and attacking mindset,  but are just not ruthless enough, a pre Christmas loss at Stoke being typical, they were 11-1 ITB and 2-1 for BC's and lost 1-0 ! They seem booked for an 8th-12th place finish, as long as top scorer Adam Armstrong stays fit , or is not sold in January , which is not impossible as he is attracting a good deal of attention.

 

Cardiff were my promotion outsider and they might still come good, their overall numbers are good, but they have "lost" 4 of their last 5 starts on ITB and were very disappointing in a weekend 3-2 home loss to Brentford. Forget the scoreline, it was not that close, they were outplayed and the lack of offensive ambition they showed came as a shock to me and I am all out of love for the Bluebirds ! Supporters are also VERY unhappy with head coach Neil Harris and his team selection/style of play.

 

Preston can't get a real run going, they look very good at times, were outstanding at Lionel Road scoring four and have that kind of ability when it all clicks, but only seem to do so every other game. Having said that, xP puts them on par with a lot of top 6 clubs and they will win 4-5 in a row at some stage and make at least a pretence at a top 6 push.

 

Huddersfield feel like a not so good Preston in that they have won 4/8, but rarely put two wins together and some of their recent stats (7-20 ITB in last 2 and 13 BC's given up in their last 4) give real cause for concern.

 

Luton are a net +8 ITB and +4 for BC's over their last 5 starts and considering they played three top 8 teams in that sequence that is pretty good, but they have failed to score in 5/8 and they have only scored more than a single goal twice in 17 starts and that is a concern for me. Lower mid table feels about right and given how last season played out and that they were still in League 2 in 2018, they will surely be happy with that.

 

Millwall have positive ITB and BC numbers and they are definitely better than their current league position suggests, but have COVID issues now. It is  always worth looking at the Lions at big odds as they can beat anyone at this level, but probably on the road, as they have suffered more than most by the lack of a home crowd.

 

Birmingham City have beyond awful recent stats, they are 22-32 for ITB and 0-14 (!) for BC's over their last five games and you all know my thoughts on head coach Aitor Karanka and, all his and the Blues issues are being laid bare . It is a little scary when you have so little offensively and then start shipping chances and City allowed 19 BC's against them in their first 16 games and now 14 in 5 , without creating one and something has gone very wrong and I think I know the culprit !

 

Coventry were also League 2 in 2018 like Luton Town (see above), but unlike the Hatters , this is their first season in the second tier and to be honest, they were very poor when I saw them and it looked like their meteoric rise had caught up with them. So they should be delighted to be 7 points above the drop zone, but xP puts them only above Wednesday and they are bottom 2 for BC's and 4th last for net ITB and just two BC's created in their last five (a net -7) highlights that they have ridden their luck to lose only one of those.

 

QPR, as much it pains me to say it, Rangers are better than 19th and they are the best offensive team in terms of ITB and BC chances created, in the bottom half of the table. Of course , they are not as good at the other end of the pitch, but creating opportunities always gives you a chance and, on what I have seen with my own eyes, that xP of 29 points which would put them smack bang in mid table is right on the money and where they should be. But, if they were to be dragged in a relegation dogfight, I would not be shedding too many tears !

 

Forest are +10 ITB and only -1 for BC's , creating the second most of those premium chances amongst the bottom 11 teams. They should continue to improve under Chris Hughton and he has plenty of talent in this squad if he can get the best out of them. Five points and just one goal conceded in their last three starts is a start and something to build on.

 

Rotherham have bad BC numbers, but -7 ITB is "ok" and they are outside the drop zone and have two games in hand on most teams. Across their last three starts they are a net +8 ITB and +1 for BC's and performances were on the up, so it is a shame they have had two games postponed with COVID issues. They are a very physical side and maybe a break will do them good and need not be a negative in a week or so. BUT, right now they are injury hit and the players returning from self isolation for today have been away from the club for 9 days and unable to train and the Millers will be short handed on the pitch and bench .

 

Derby County, ahead of the Boxing Day game I wrote ............. Since taking charge of Derby the Rams are unbeaten in six and have conceded just 2 goals total, none in the last four starts (two wins), three of which came versus top 7 teams . One of which was a 0-0 draw at Lionel Road against Brentford which I watched, I thought County were "ok" nothing special, but well organised and they did not allow the creative Bees an attempt on target (they did have two BC's) which is noteworthy. They were much improved , at least in terms of defensive discipline, from when I saw them last last season and all credit to Rooney. Under former head coach Phillip Cocu, the Rams conceded 33 goals in their last 20 starts, picking up 11 points from a possible 60 , Rooney has 10 from 18 and the support of the players, who wanted him to take charge. They lost that 1-0 conceding a late, late 97th minute winner, but had played 76 minutes a man short and still did not allow a BC on their own goal.

 

Sheffield Wednesday numbers are in freefall and the change in head coach has made little difference, across the last 10 starts they are -45 ITB  and -6 for BC's , but it is the lack of quality scoring chances they are creating which is the real cause for concern, just 6 in those 10 starts which is 0.6 per game , ally that to a league low 104 ITB attempts created which is more than 13% fewer than the next lowest and this is a club in trouble.

 

Wycombe Wanderers are bottom of the table, four points from safety and have a mid table League 1 budget at best and players of that ability. They have great camaraderie and team spirit, but that can only take you so far at this level and they are another team who were in League 2 in 2018. I guess you cut your cloth according to what is available, but trying to keep games at 0-0 or even 0-1 as long as possible and then going for it in the final 10-15 minutes is not my idea of much of a game plan, but it seems to be Gareth Ainsworth's ! To highlight that, Wanderers have scored 8 away goals, but only one in the first half and in all games they have a -12 goal difference before the break, -6 through the second 45 minutes. Too little, too late !

 

 

Good luck !