Hard to argue with the top 5 and bottom 2 team, with Arminia Bielefeld and Schalke not just at the foot of every category but adrift of everyone else, however, I can make some kind of case for the former (see below) . Augsburg look on borrowed time in 8th place/ the top half with the next 5-6 teams in the table all boasting superior numbers.

 

 

 

 

 

11 points separate struggling Koln from Wolfsburg, but the visitors are only a net +15 ITB , xP puts the gap between them at just 4 points and the home side were big improvers after a very slow start in 19-20. They won just 2 of their first 14 starts last season, but then took all three points from their next 8/11 and fairly comfortably survived and another big run is not totally impossible at some stage. That winning run was interrupted by the COVID shutdown, they again struggled post lockdown and they look and feel like slow starters and are probably better than we have seen so far which, to be honest, is probably not as bad as it looks, they are -15 ITB against opposition with an average league placing of 8.5 and the Wolves are zero against opponents who are placed 14.7 . Koln have also scored in 8/9 and almost all games have been close.  Hosts are no lost cause .

 

 

I really wish these two were playing someone else, as incredible as it sounds, both have recent numbers I can pick holes in.  With regard to Bayern, they were an average 12.7-6.9  ITB and 4.7-1.7 for BC's through their first 7 starts and are 8.0-8.0 and 1.5-3.0 for the two subsequent games which are post the last international break.  Leipzig gave up 4 BC's at home to toiling Bielefeld last weekend and they made very hard work of a trip to Turkey in midweek conceding three goals and needing a 93rd minute winner to beat Basaksehir. Add in the lengthy trip and that they have a home Champions League game with Manchester United on Tuesday where pretty much only a win will take them through to the knockout stage and the timing of their biggest domestic game could hardly have been worse. Bayern have already won their CL group, rested many of their star names in midweek and have all the advantages here.