Arminia Bielefeld are bottom in all three stat categories and their BC numbers of 5-26 are just terrible. Leverkusen are a net +62 ITB over Arminia and +19 for BC's. Bayer have hit a golden run of goalscoring form with 21 goals in their last six starts, beating BMG 4-3 immediately before the break, a team who have shown great strength and potential in the Champions League and were themselves scoring for fun and on a lengthy unbeaten run, so the formline is very solid. Leverkusen are comfortable on the road and have a 62.07% win rate in Bundesliga away starts (18/29) since Christmas 2018 and that alone suggests value today against what looks a bottom 3 candidate statistically and one creating so little, 24 ITB attempts is 18 fewer than the next lowest and 5 BC's is also a Bundesliga low figure.

 

 

 

 

Wolfsburg are a net +30 ITB and a massive +22 for BC's over Schalke who are posting awful numbers in that category and continuing their terrible form from 19-20 even though head coach David Wagner, who we have been bad mouthing for 3-4 seasons, has now departed. Manuel Baum has taken over, but we have seen no real improvement and I suspect that Wagner has left a lot of work to do and a negative mindset to unpick. Schalke are winless in the league since January! They are 0-9-14 since that long forgotten victory with a 12-59 goal difference which is 2.56 pg conceded.They won just 2 of their last 16 starts in 18-19 and with their stats so poor early last season even though they were grinding out results, they have pretty much been playing at relegation level for almost two years !. Wolfsburg are unbeaten this season , albeit with a lot of draws and are 6th, they were 7th last season and xP put them an additional 10 points ahead of Schalke ( 20 total) and is the minimum gap between these two. The Wolves have actually won their last two home starts and drawn away to both Hertha and BMG and a reproduction or any of those performances is likely to be enough today, but the truth is Schalke are not good enough and likely to give up 3-4 BC's and create only one .

 

 

Union are the surprise package so far in the Bundesliga, they sit sixth this morning and would move up to 5th and to within two points of a Champions League spot and only four behind leaders Bayern with the win. Numbers suggest that is their rightful position, they are 3rd for xP and 4th for both ITB and BC's . They are a net +23 ITB over Koln and +12 for BC's. The visitors will have positive memories when they enter the stadium today having pretty much secured their place in the top flight with a 2-1 win here in June, but they did eventually finish 10 points above the drop zone and apart from a mini blip either side of lockdown played pretty well all season after a sluggish start and posted some good offensive numbers which I highlighted at the time. Writing in May .......... veteran Union right back/midfielder Christopher Trimmel has 10 assists this season , including 9 in the Bundesliga and 7 from set pieces ( one more than Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold) and a European wide big league high. Union have scored 31.25 % of all goals from set pieces, the 2nd highest in the Bundesliga. Trimmel has three assists already this season and he and finally fit again Sheraldo Becker are providing a big threat on the right flank.

 

They now look to have improved defensively without compromising their attack and only Bayern have scored more goals and only Leipzig, Wolfsburg and Dortmund have conceded fewer. Union have done so largely ditching their long ball game and by dealing really shrewdly in the transfer market, the addition of Max Kruse was at almost genius level, the 32yo has 3 goals and 5 assists already, Kruse has scored and provided at every club he has played for and all former employers think very highly of him and Bremen wanted to resign him, but he opted for Union. Coaches Viktor Skripnik, Alexander Nouri and Florian Kohfeldt spoke recently about Kruse in the highest of tones, with "leader" the common thread. Legendary goal-getter Claudio Pizarro went as far as to label his former teammate as "world-class".

 

 

 

ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .

 

XG= expected goals.

XGF= expected goals for.

XGA = expected goals against.

XGD = expected goal difference.

XP = expected points.

BC = big scoring chance.

 

 

Good luck !