I previewed this very fixture post lockdown, back in June, almost exactly three months ago, making , or attempting to make a strong case for Villa who were very big odds 3.30 + and my notes included ................
This game "shouldn't " be a draw, a point would take United up to 6th , but all three would mean 5th place and take them to within two of a Champions League position (might even claim one if Man City lose their European ban appeal), that would be the dream case scenario for them and a fairytale for all Blades supporters, but they have nothing to lose and if you are going to dream, it might as well be big ! Every league point has some value when you are battling relegation, but a draw would keep Villa 19th, whereas all three would take them above three teams and be a huge survival boost, especially with 5 of the top 6 still to play in their final nine games. They need to be brave and the Villains and head coach Dean Smith are very offensive minded and they have only drawn four games this season.
You will note from their ITB stats for the last eight games that they have created the most of any team outside the top 8 apart from Everton and more than United, their issues are at the other end of the pitch where they have conceded a league high 95 . But you always have a chance if you can score goals and Villa have 4 more than United, despite trailing them by 18 points. The visitors' last eight game stats will also offer Smith and his boys hope , with United having conceded 68 attempts which is far better than Villa of course, but 7th most and a lot when you are scoring as few goals as they are.
These two came up from the Championship together last season and things have not worked out quite as expected for big spending Villa, who are the major club in England's second city and the Premier League needs them almost as much as the reverse is true. This will be a huge and emotional occasion for Smith who is a lifelong Villa supporter from a family of them, his brother is a well known fan and their father, who was also a chief steward at the club, recently passed away due to the coronavirus.
The enforced break has helped improve options for Villa who will have influential midfielder John McGinn available once again, he has not played since breaking his ankle at Christmas and despite six months out has apparently been telling the head coach and everyone else who will listen, that he wants and is ready to play. McGinn and Jack Grealish have 10 goals and 8 assists between them from midfield and Villa are just a better team, with a good offensive threat, when these two are in tandem. They need to be, as Villa have given up a massive circa 2.4 xGA per game, but United have really rode their luck defensively as already mentioned , with keeper Dean Henderson giving up just 25 goals from an xGA of between 36-42 and he is the second top rated keeper in the top flight, just behind Hugo Lloris of Tottenham. All the other highest ranked keepers are those playing for struggling teams (they get more chances to shine) or Spurs ,who have some awful defensive stats (see table above).
United have struggled at the start of each recent season so the break might not have helped them, they opened with a draw against Bournemouth this season, lost their first two games in their promotion season conceding five goals, lost 2/3 the previous campaign and 3 from 4 to start their 2016-16 League 1 title winning season when they ended up with 100 points !
So, as bad as Villa have been defensively, their need is great, they create chances at the other end of the pitch, Dean Smith will probably want this win above all others and United are not at their best after a break, do not score enough and have been over performing defensively which can only last for so long.For all their issues that has to indicate the value is with Villa at these odds.
That game did end in a draw, of course it did, it was 0-0 but the clean sheet and performance ( the hosts "won" attempts on target 6-1, BC's 1-0 and ITB 12-3) gave Villa the basis for their survival campaign and they were unbeaten through their last four starts including wins here at Villa Park over Palace and Arsenal (along with clean sheets) and a point at Goodison Park, where they comprehensively outplayed Everton. United failed to score in 6 of their final 11 starts after writing those notes , including a 2-0 loss at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers last week, goals remain a big issue and they eventually finished 9th last season, outside the European spots and they will do well to replicate that impressive first season back in the top flight. They lost Dean Henderson (see above) in the off season, but signed Aaron Ramsdale from Bournemouth as replacement, I do not doubt he is a very promising young keeper, but he is not an upgrade on Henderson and the 22 yo has let in 64 goals in his 38 Premier league starts, has won just 5 of the last 27 and doesn't have a winning mentality, at least yet, at this level. The only other two signings were two young full backs from Derby County, the type of players that head coach Chris Wilder does well with, but the pair are going to need time.
Villa made the notes for their cup game at Burton last midweek............
Unlike many teams I expect Villa to take this competition seriously, they have yet to play a league game so this will be an opportunity to build some momentum ahead of their Premier League opener with Sheffield United, which is not being played until next Monday in any case. They might only be friendly games, but Villa have got a little run going and took great heart from a 1-0 defeat of Manchester United last time out, when new record signing Ollie Watkins scored his first goal in claret and blue and he might have had a second. He will want one in a competitive fixture now and will be facing a team with major issues on and off the pitch and one that Watkins and many of the Villa squad know quite well from their time in the Championship. So no step into the unknown for anyone and the tiny Pirelli stadium will offer familiar surroundings. The visitors also like this competition and made the final last season and have further motivation by the game being televised, no one wants to lose to lower league opposition, especially when the cameras are filming every move.
Albion have suffered badly financially with the Covid-19 pandemic, which was the catalyst for cost cutting measures which saw favourite son and long serving head coach, Nigel Clough, leave in the summer. They have spoken openly about their money struggles and were already operating on a shoestring budget and finished their 19-20 domestic campaign way back on March 10th . They have played three fixtures in the new season (two cup), but have continued their poor run of form which has seen them win just one of their last 13 starts and keep just a single clean sheet conceding at the rate of 2.0 goals per game. The sole win in that sequence was a 3-2 win over Southend United who were relegated on just 19 points, conceding 28 goals more than any team who survived.
Villa spent £28m (rising to £33m) on Watkins, who is a fine young man with an incredible work ethic and he will want to start repaying the fee and earning his big salary ASAP. I touched upon that hard work last month .................
I spoke in detail prior to the restart about the Brentford recruitment policy, forget about what that brings you on the pitch, this is the true value......... Ollie Watkins is a young man, still only 24 yo and he is getting a lot of attention, his ceaseless running, hold up play, aerial ability and predators instinct have all been much admired in recent months and he has scored 26 goals this season playing in the main striker role for the first time ever. He has missed just 8 minutes of 48 league and playoff games. What is not so well known is that after every training session, he does extra work one on one, or on his own, following which, if the B team are still at work at the training centre, he will often then go and join in with them, he has an incredible work ethic and desire to improve. When Brentford "blew" their regular season promotion chance , he telephoned every squad member and invited them to lunch at his house on their rest day to discuss what had gone wrong and what they could do about it, there was 100% attendance.
Visiting head coach Dean Smith said: “Aston Villa have got a great tradition in this competition and we’ll be going all-out to continue that.”I assume it will be a strong line up and that Villa supporters will be given the opportunity to see their new signing and I expect Ollie to score a goal or two.
Villa won that 3-1 Watkins scored one and missed an absolute sitter for a second which was most unlike him, but some of the approach play between Watkins , Jack Grealish and co augured very well for the future and all should be more in sync will another 5-6 days on the training pitch in the interim. Only good news coming out of Villa Park at present, star play Jack Grealish signed a new , lucrative and very long term contract, goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez joined from Arsenal , along with RB Betrand Traore from Lyon, add in Watkins and Matty Cash for a big fee from Nottingham Forest and the squad has been seriously upgraded and they are still looking at further additions and you suspect that any points earned between now and transfer deadline day might allow even further loosening of the purse strings.Liverpool will be the next visitors to Villa Park and that makes this a very big game for the home side , three points today will just ease any pressure going into that .
1.75 units Aston Villa -0.25 ball 2.25 asian line /Sportmarket.
Ligue 2: Auxerre- Troyes
Troyes have won on their last four h2h visits scoring 8 goals, keeping clean sheets in 3 /5 trips here, they have done the double over Auxerre in each of the last two seasons and have started to boss the series. They actually played this fixture last season exactly 12 months ago, when I wrote .............
Bit of a derby fixture with only 75km separating these two clubs and a good case for the pair being the top two in Ligue 2 with Troyes on +18 ( see above) and Auxerre's +11 being skewed by being -11 last week ! They were +22 ahead of that game which they won 4-1 ! I like Auxerre as team and the signing last week of Mickael Le Bihan from Nice, who had a goal and assist on his debut feels like a game changer, he was top scorer in this league in 2014-15 and I lost count of the number of times I mentioned him as the big player at Le Havre and he will score a LOT of goals in this team, he is way too good for the second tier IMO. He is super hungry after a long time out injured (17 months in one go) and little game time, but looks fit again and desperate to make up for lost time. Auxerre are a second half time with a 0-5 first half goal difference and 12-3 after the break, when they can kill tiring teams on the break, 10 of the 16 goals in Troyes fixture have also come in the second half (5-5) and a good chance for this to explode into action in the final 45 minutes. 11 goals in the last 3 h2h meetings , with the visitor scoring 2+ in each............both teams to score, "over", second half action and MLB to score !
I went "over" 2.5 goals at big odds, Troyes won 2-1 Le Bihan did not score ( see above) but he did get himself sent off ! He did not develop into the player he might have been last season, but he is a class act and might still come good. Auxerre ended the campaign in 11th, 17 points adrift of Troyes who were 4th, only three points off of leaders Lorient when the season was called off with 10 games remaining and must surely feel very hard done by. Auxerre have made a nasty habit of making a slow start to their campaigns (every campaign !), they won just 1/7 to start 13-14, 1/5 in 14-15, 1/6 in 15-16, 1/10 to begin 16-17, 1/7 to start 17-18, 2/10 in 18-19 and 1/5 last season ! Just falling out of the blocks every time, this time round they have already lost both home starts without scoring and across the two games also "lost" attempts 31-10, on target 7-2, BC's 3-0 and ITB 19-4 , no good chances created and only 4 ITB the box from two home games makes dire reading and we have to go with Troyes today.
1.75 units Troyes -0.25 2.43 asian line/Sportmarket.
NFL : New Orleans Saints @ Las Vegas Raiders
It just seems wrong to type Las Vegas before the Raiders, LA for a while was bad enough ! Anyway, this is their first season in Nevada and today their home opener and first ever NFL game at the Allegiant Stadium, in fact,it is the first ever event played in the arena which was only completed in July. There are no fans allowed, so any home field advantage is going to be minimal.
Saints were 13-3 last year and no NFL team has won more regular season games since 2017, they lost their post season game in overtime and along with it picked up a couple of unwanted records, it was their sixth straight playoff loss by one score, their second straight OT playoff loss and they became the first-ever 13–3 team to lose in the Wild Card round.
They have kept their core team together unlike many other franchises this season and quarterback and NFL all-time passing leader Drew Brees, head coach Sean Payton, and WR Michael Thomas (NFL record 149 receptions in 2019). Top RB Alvin Kamara, TE Jared Cook all remain and along with newly acquired WR Emmanuel Sanders that gives them an explosive offense. Their Defense has Pro Bowl talent at all levels, led by DE Cam Jordan, LB Demario Davis and CB Marshon Lattimore. They do have some weaknesses on paper, mainly on their Offensive Line but it held up well enough in an opening day 34-23 defeat of the much vaunted Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Michael Thomas is out tonight for the road team, that is a big loss, he was just one of nine players to catch a pass last week , but I will not try to underestimate his value to the Saints and he is Brees' go to man and has not missed a game since 2016.
Last mid season I wrote this about the Raiders and head coach Jon Gruiden who had been given a ten year (!) contract .............
The Raiders ended last season on 4-12, but rebuild Gruden has and they are 4-4 and, from this point on and I am talking long term, I only see them improving and to be honest, whenever I have seen them this year, I have been impressed.
This is a bit difficult as some numbers I do not want to discuss, but they are up 10 places in total offense, 12 in scoring offense, 24 in rushing defense from those above and have scored 24 points in each of their last five starts, they have also scored 13.7 first half points in their last 3 games, 12.7 in those after half time ( so the big drop off has stopped) and Gruden has addressed almost all issues, or rather, and I have to be fair here, always knew what he was doing and was prepared to make sacrifices and take flak last season, to make the quantum leap forward required, which his team have not done yet, but look like they will soon enough. Defensively they have a way to go, but it is nice to be on 4-4 and have areas in which you can only improve . QB Derek Carr looks to have got that confidence back, his numbers for DYAR/DVOA (it doesn't matter at this stage !) saw him ranked between 7th and 12th in 2015-17 ( when they averaged 8.33 wins), last year he was 21st, he is currently 5th , the four players above him are Wilson, Mahomes, Stafford and Watson so elite company and Carr, arguably playing better than ever.
I have a lot more to say about Oakland , but want to save it for another day, I spent five hours going through some numbers on Wednesday afternoon ( not all I understood on first , or even second reading !) and am quite excited ( I have used that twice this season, but it is not a word I use often, so it should be noted) by what is going on in the "wrong" part of the Bay Area ( you know I am a Niner) and am sure we will do well with them in the next 15-27 months.
They ended the season on 7-9, it should have been 8-8 they were robbed of a win by some bad calls and were still in playoff contention until the final day. It was a season of nearly, but not quite. Their offense was good, especially with the breakouts of Darren Waller and rookie star running back Josh Jacobs. But the defense let them down a little and was not helped by the loss of Karl Joseph in week 9 , following on from the injury to Johnathan Abram in Week 1. Abram was back last week and the Raiders have traded to upgrade the defense with middle LB Cory Littleton coming in from the Rams, they also had a second big draft in a row with Henry Ruggs III, an incredibly fast wideout arriving from Alabama and they also selected two cornerbacks in Damon Arnette (pick 19) and Amik Robertson , as well as Clemson safety Tanner Muse. Their three other draft picks were to try and bolster options on offense with Lynn Bowden Jr., wideout Bryan Edwards and guard John Simpson. They also added Marcus Mariota who is a well above average backup quarterback and he will help/put some pressure on Derek Carr.
Last week they beat the Panthers 34-30 in Charlotte, it was hard to pick too many holes in that, they put up a balanced offense, 23 first downs with an even split and 133 yards on the ground and 239 through the air, did not turnover the ball, bossed possession, Ruggs had a 45 yard reception and Arnetter, Littleton and especially Abram were the main contributors on defense. The Raiders put up better numbers all around than Tampa did at home to Carolina yesterday and it was a pleasing start for LV, something to work on.
This is more about going forward than today, the Raiders should be a team to watch and an improving one, but the loss of Thomas to the Saints feels big and we can try something on the home team.
I am tempted by the straight win @ 2.95 , but will go with the handicap start, Saints have given up between 23-34 points in their last five trips out West, at an average of 28.6, losing two and winning two narrowly.
2 units Las Vegas Raiders + 3.5 points 2.14 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.
