Ligue 1 update: Are Marseille and Rennes overachieving ?

Mar 26, 2020

Ligue 1 :

ITB

*PSG +172 85-38

Marseille +45 29-36

Rennes -8 36-37

Lille +43 53-25

Reims +49 42-32

Nice -52 38-59

Lyon +56 40-23

Montpellier +10 44-50

Monaco +14 48-44

Angers +30 39-40

*Strasbourg +33 41-35

Bordeaux -36 44-50

Nantes -7 39-48

Brest -72 46-46

Metz -63 37-51

Dijon -34 39-46

St Etienne -13 34-39

Nimes -24 41-47

Amiens -86 29-43

Toulouse -57 44-50

28 rounds played, teams are shown in league table order.

* PSG and Strasbourg have played just 27 games.

Net ITB numbers for the season directly alongside each team, figures in blue type are ITB numbers (created-conceded) for the last six games.

The ITB top 9 would look like ........

PSG +172

Lyon +56

Reims +49

Marseille +45

Lille +43

Strasbourg +33

Angers +30

ASM +14

Montpellier +10

all other teams are on minus numbers.

XP sees the Ligue 1 top ten as.......

PSG 66 pts

Lille 47

Lyon 46

Monaco 42

Marseille 42

Rennes 41

Reims 40

Montpellier 40

Strasbourg 38

Angers 37

9 of the top ten form the top 9 of the ITB numbers, "interloper" is Rennes who are third in the actual table.

Anyway, XP suggest that Toulouse should have an extra 15 pts, Amiens 10 more and Lyon 6.

Biggest overachievers according to XP are Marseille with an extra 14 points, followed by Rennes with an additional 9.

Rennes, Nantes and Dijon have all drawn 18 of 28 (65.29%) of first halves.

Glossary:

ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .

XG= expected goals.

XGF= expected goals for.

XGA = expected goals against.

XGD = expected goal difference.

XP = expected points.

BC = big scoring chance.

I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

Good Luck.