UEFA Champions League semi finals betting tips:
May 08, 2019
UEFA Champions League:
Liverpool- Barcelona
With 20 minutes to play in the first leg Barcelona led 1-0, but had been pinned back in their own half for much of the previous half and hour and we looked set for a humdinger of a return leg and 1-1 looked far more likely that what actually played out. Barcelona won 3-0 and now Pool are without both Salah and Firmini tonight and slim progression chances have all but evaporated. The home front three is likely to be Mane/Origi/Shaqiri which doesn't have quite the same fear factor, Sturridge is also an option,but it gives the trio/quartet the opportunity to write their name in Anfield folklore. It is hard not to feel a little sympathy for the Reds, they could play that first leg out another 20 times and not lose by three and/or not score and they are very likely to lose the Premier League having picked up 97 points at over 2.55 per game ! They have a mountain to overcome this evening , but we have to be more interested in how this game, as opposed to the overall tie will play out. I expressed some doubts about Barce ahead of the first leg and despite a superstar showing from Messi, I saw little else from the Catalan giants for 70 minutes plus, when Pool were the better team. Barcelona will only be concerned with progression, will not overly mind losing narrowly and they have won just 5 of their last 18 away Champions League knockout ties. Liverpool are unbeaten in 19 home games in all competitions, with 16 wins and, are 14-3-1 here at Anfield in semi finals of European competitions. Of course, the hosts will leave space on the counter for Barce to exploit, but that is counterbalanced IMO by the visitors being likely to start mentally packing up for the trip home once they score ( Pool would then need 5 goals), if they do that, I still see the Reds as wanting to win before a sold out and super passionate home crowd and Pool do score a LOT of late goals, witness two in the final 13 minutes in Porto in the QF and what was a dead rubber and, two in the final 20 in Munich in the R16 and only one of the four goals came from either of the two missing forwards. Two actually came from Virgil van Dijk so maybe look for him late on. Pool have also scored 24 league goals in the final 15 minutes of PL games.
1.5 units Liverpool -0.5 ball 2.57 asian line/Sportmarket.
Ajax Amsterdam- Tottenham Hotspur
My notes from last week's first leg are reproduced below, under the "good luck" sign off, Ajax won 1-0 , they dominated the early exchanges and might regret not taking a bigger lead into tonight's game, but Tottenham made good changes tactically in that game and I am not sure the tie is over just yet. The Champions League this season is the gift that just keeps giving and after all the comebacks we have seen, going on the road trailing 1-0 doesn't seem quite as big a ask as it once did . Not much went the way of Spurs in the match at WHL, already missing Kane, Winks and Son, they lost Jan Vertonghen to injury before the break. He has been passed fit for tonight and Heung-Min Son returns from his suspension and given how this is likely to play out, his abilities and pace on the break can be game changing. Above all that the visitors also need at least one and probably both of Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen to step up, each has been struggling and way off the pace expected of them in recent starts and it is surely now or never on the biggest of stages. Tottenham cannot fail to be expired by Liverpool's win last night sans Salah and Firminho and a couple of things now switch to their favour, firstly, the pressure is now firmly on Ajax and after games with Juventus and Real where they played the second leg on the road ,level/trailing and as underdogs, they play at home, with a lead , as favourites and these are very different circumstances. Secondly, Spurs have now qualified for next season's CL competition, so the pressure they themselves have been under for a month or so has suddenly lifted and they can now only gain, not lose something. Ajax have played three elite teams at home this season, (Bayern, Real, Juve) they have conceded six golas and not won any, I expect Tottenham to score and for a few twists and turns tonight and see the best value this time as ................
1.5 Tottenham Hotspur level ball 2.30 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
UEFA Champions League: Barcelona- Liverpool (written May 1st)
I do not doubt that Barcelona are the best team in Spain, but I have some issues with all the Spanish teams this year and am not fully convinced by them. I also never feel they are suited by playing their home game first at the knockout stage and they have gone out 3 of the last 4 occasions they have done so. I might be clutching at straws, but I do not feel this team compares too favourably with all the great Barce teams of the recent past (2009/2011/2015), of course, that is asking a lot and they will not need to be to win the Champions League this season, but I had to start somewhere, so there it is ! Also, they want this trophy so very much after the Real Madrid hat-trick and it never feels healthy to crave a title above all else, think Rory at Augusta, that puts even more pressure on players and is another concern. It was the Premier League title that Liverpool wanted, that is now outside of their control and did you ever think you would see a team collect 91 points, let alone the 97 they might still get and not end the season as champions ? I can pick plenty of holes in the Reds away form in Europe too, but not at the knockout stage and seven goals at Porto and Bayern makes good reading, although the Camp Nou and Barce is a step up. The Catalan giants have, surprisingly qualified from "just" four of 10 competition semi finals, losing 3/4 to English teams. Of the Big 6 PL teams, Liverpool look the best suited to playing Barcelona, they are more relaxed now, unlike the team which started 2019 and playing with freedom , they are deadly on the counter and have the pace and goals to really trouble the home team. I see the tie as a coinflip at best and not sure Barce should be favoured at all, on this occasion rather than the match, I feel best value is for Liverpool to progress over the two legs at anything north of 2.10.
UEFA Champions League: Tottenham Hotspur- Ajax Amsterdam (written April 30th)
Both teams served us well in the quarter finals, Spurs in both games, ahead of their first leg with Manchester City my notes went a lot like this ..................
This will be the first Champions League match played at Tottenham's brand new stadium, which has been greeted with universal approval, it is only the second competitive game to be played here, first was last midweek's London derby with Crystal Palace, ahead of which I wrote ..............
Palace are the only one of the three away teams who have a weekend league fixture, playing at Newcastle United on Saturday, that is a long journey and very quick turnaround and it is fairly unusual to play Wednesday-Saturday in the Premier League and the Eagles have lost 7/8 on the last four occasions that they have. This is a derby and a big high profile game, but they will surely see the trip up North as more win-able and will not want to give everything tonight chasing a lost cause (once it is lost) and leave nothing for the weekend. This is so high profile because it marks the opening of Spurs brand new stadium, it has been a long time coming but seems well worth the wait and this is a big day for club and supporters alike.
Tottenham were devastaed by losing late at Anfield on Sunday after dominating the second half, they are now clinging onto 4th place and will lose it if Chelsea win, as seems likely and they fail to also take all three points. Palace are only 13th, but have an 8 point lead over Cardiff City, who will almost certainly lose tonight and, with just one relegation spot up for grabs and 7 teams below them, look safe and only one team has been relegated with 36 points since 2013. That is a long winded way of saying that this means far more to Spurs than Palace ! These h2h games are traditionally tight, but Palace have not scored in five PL visits, losing four, the last three all by the same 1-0 scoreline. Spurs have actually won seven successive top-flight games against Crystal Palace (home and away), six of them by a 1-0 scoreline. However, this is the first at the new White Hart Lane, it is almost on the same patch of land as the old stadium, where Spurs won their last 14 starts and it just feels like "one of those nights" and something special in the history of the club. It will also be the only chance for Tottenham to win in these new surroundings and refind some real confidence ahead of their Champions League home quarter final with Manchester City next Tuesday. Home win, Spurs by 2+ goals on this occasion.
Spurs won 2-0, it was a commanding performance and stats, which I will not bore you with on this occasion, were more inline with a 4 or 5 goal victory, the victors have had six days subsequently to bask in that ,rest up and prepare for this. City also played last Wednesday, but were back in action Saturday evening for a FA Cup semi final with Brighton where my notes spoke about their HEAVY schedule...............
...........it will be City's 22nd start of 2019 and the cup semi final will probably be the least important match the Sky Blues will play in the remaining weeks, they are going toe to toe with Liverpool for the title and above all else, are desperate to win a Champions League and travel to play Spurs in that QF first leg on Tuesday and that will overshadow the Brighton fixture....................and the truth is City would take a 1-0 win now and have eased off twice in the last week once they had a two goal lead.
City won 1-0 scored very early and this was the third game in a row we had seen the action/damage done early and then either a easing off, or drop in intensity and you could make a good case for the Sky Blues running out of energy, or just playing with the bigger picture in mind, regardless of which, I see value in the host this evening. In terms of starting eleven, if certainly not squad, on a going day Spurs are the equal of City/Liverpool, or at least close enough, it is just that they lack the depth and over 38 games that tends to leave them 10-15 points short. With money in the bank and that new stadium completed, they have a decision now to make about whether they want to make the next step up and try to compete at the highest level, which will mean spending big in the transfer market and paying top wages, both of which they have been loath to do, but that is for another day. In terms of h2h, if the two teams had played the last 10 Premier League seasons as CL fixtures, on aggregate, the 20 games would have resulted in 5 wins for each team and that alone should give Spurs more confidence than bookmaker odds. I said that City would take 1-0 on Raturday and I suspect they would accept 1-1 for tonight right now and save the likely expended energy. The visitors will also have that 3-0 first leg loss at Anfield to Liverpool at this stage of the competition 12 months ago at the back of their minds, three goals in 19 first half minutes ended that tie and those events might dictate how they approach this, especially early, with the new WHL crowd pumped and looking for something to further feed off.
Spurs won that 1-0 and qualified for the last four by virtue of the away goal rule after losing the second leg 4-3, across the two games influential Heung-Min Son scored three goals and top striker Harry Kane picked up a season ending injury. In addition to Kane, Harry Winks now looks out for the rest of this campaign and Son is suspended for this evening. That puts an awful lot of pressure on their midfield to come up with the goods and if they push forward too much they will get killed on the counter by Ajax. The visitors saw off Juve in the previous round and scored freely in the Bernabeu in the previous stage, ahead of the game in Turin, my notes also spoke about the Madrid game.......
The two played out a 1-1 draw in Amsterdam last midweek .........
Both teams served us very well in the R16 second leg games, Ajax with that famous win in the Bernabeu .............
Not a great last week for Real, two losses at the Bernabeu to Barcelona, conceding four goals without scoring , leaving them out of the Copa del Rey and seemingly booked for third in La Liga. It will doubtless be all about the Champions League again from here on in , where they are looking for a 4th straight title which would be like a knife into Barce hearts and would mean that a repeat of the five wins between 1956 and 1960 when the game was VERY different, was on the cards, something which has long claimed to be impossible. No one even repeated between 1990 and 2017. Anyway, Real look good to progress with a 2-1 first leg lead and teams with that advantage from an away game have a 100% progression record at the knock out stage since the competition was renamed.
Real have conceded in 12 of 15 home CL starts, multigoals in six of those and won "just" 66.7%.
Ajax have scored in 12/13 away CL starts, including at Barcelona, PSG and Bayern (this season) , they almost always have huge travelling support, probably 5,000 tonight and that ensures they give of their best for 90 minutes and a lot of those goals have come late, including in the Catalan capital and Paris when those games were all but lost, so the visitors are highly unlikely to throw the towel in should they concede a goal or two. They are a second half team anyway, with 11 of 12 competition goals coming after the break .
Following the win in Amsterdam, Real lost at home to Girona 2-1 after taking a 1-0 lead into the half time break and they have shipped 7 SH goals in five starts, three of which came here at the Bernabeu. Sergio Ramos is suspended for the home side, he has sat out three games this season, two CL matches versus CSKA which they lost by a combined 4-0 and a 2-1 defeat of Levante where their opponent missed a couple of big chances and hit the woodwork twice. They also lost 3-1 at home to Juventus last season (should have been a bigger loss) in his absence.
Easy to see a goal or two in this for Ajax and odds for two or more for the visitor in the second half at circa 5.50 appeal and are far from a forlorn hope given how this is likely to play out. I will be looking at these goal markets in play, but I think I will "officially" keep this simple and go with .......
Somethimes a plan does work out and Ajax won 4-1 and did indeed find two of those goals in the second half !
A week later Juve hosted Atletico Madrid looking to overturn a two goal road defeat..................
Atletico hold a 2-0 from the first leg and look in good shape to qualify, but know that Juve will come at them and the visitors might need an away goal to get this over the line.
Few who watched it will forget the Old Lady's comeback from losing 3-0 at home to Real Madrid, to level the tie on aggregate in Spain before conceding a late, late penalty, that was a game in which they could /should have scored five goals in and that was when Real were good ! Amongst those watching would have been Atletico and they will know only half the job is done.
All the damage was done late in the first leg, we looked headed for 0-0, before Atleti scored twice in the final 12 minutes. Juve created plenty of chances there, but were misfiring in front of goal and of Cristiano Ronaldo's 7 attempts, none were on target and you just "know" he has a part to play this evening. Juve had 64% possession in the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano and whilst that means little in modern football, it does highlight just how much of the ball they are likely to see tonight. Ronaldo's powers are on the wane, but he lives for and is made for night's like these and, not just in Madrid, but all CL games he has been getting chances and is averaging circa 6 attempts and his 6.6 pg average for Juve (all starts) is more than in his last two seasons at Real. Sorry to keep on about him, but CR is really integral to how this is likely to play out, he is more of a team player now (believe that or not !) and his competition passing stats are highest ever and he has been drawing players out of position and creating space for Paulo Dybala and Mario Mandzukic. I like Juve to win and with the one goal handicap, that is what they need to take this to overtime or progress and has the bonus of Atletico not overly worrying about losing by two as long as they themselves score, so 3-1 or 4-2 will suit us or them, but not Juve !
The Old Lady won 3-0 with the old superstar scoring a hat-trick ! As I said, those/ these are the type of games he lives for and was bought to Turin to play in and to try and bring a Champions League title to the Juve boardroom. However, he has not played since that game, not one minute, only sitting on the bench once, I "knew" he would be "fit" for tonight, if he had a leg in plaster and a walking stick, he would probably have said he was good to go, but I doubt he is, but some game time tonight will set him up for next week and I guess player and club know that. Key defender Giorgio Chiellini misses out with a calf strain, while Emre Can also stays behind with an ankle issue.Juve have named three cental defenders in their squad, but played with a left back in the middle of that defensive three at the weekend and options are limited, so I assume it means Andrea Barzagli who is about to enter his 39th year and has played just 225 minutes of football this season will play, or someone out of position.
Ajax are in their best form of the seaon, albeit in a very weak league, have scored 35 goals in 10 starts and are top of Eredivisie for the first time in over 1,000 days. Next week's second leg might have a very different look, but tonight I like the home side at these odds.
Ajax created the better chances and scored another six goals at the weekend in Eredivisie and given that and the fearless way they attacked Real and their road competition scoring record, it is easy to see them scoring in Turin and they will need to if they are to progress. Ronaldo scored in the first leg, but was rested at the weekend for tonight and it is a little worry that he has only played those 90 minutes in the last month. Giorgio Chiellini, Martin Caceres, Emre Can, and Douglas Costa are all set to miss out for Juve through injury, while Blaise Matuidi is a doubt after leaving the field early during the first leg, however, like City below, this season is almost all about the CL for Juve and my thinking is that they will ultimately find a way to edge home.
Ajax actually won that 2-1 and it seems odd to think of a team who scored six on the road in those two games being underdog for this and 2.50 to score twice against a Spurs team shorn of Kane and Son and who were very suspect on the break to West Ham United on Saturday lunchtime. But today it is the first leg and not the return and possibly Ajax will not be so gung-ho, but having said that, they must know that today is their big opportunity and that Son will be back for the return and best to make the most of this opportunity whilst it is there and they are a team unused and unsuited by sitting back for too long.
1.75 units Ajax level ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket.
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