UEFA Champions League betting tip: Manchester City- Basel
Mar 07, 2018
UEFA Champions League: Manchester City- Basel
Ahead of the first leg I wrote .............
Of course City want to win the Premier League this season, but that is pretty much already in the bag with a 16 point advantage and only 11 rounds left to play and it was not that domestic title that Pep Guardiola was brought into the club to win and you have to feel that Champions League will be the #1 priority for the next four months, although all four titles are still a realistic aim.
A trip to St Jakob Park is never easy and Basel have already beaten Manchester United here this season and also thrashed Benfica, but they have only just returned from their winter break and lost at this stage the two previous occasions that they made the round of 16. The host will know they need a result of some sort to take to Manchester for the second leg and should be confident of scoring given they have done so in 13/14 home games in the competition, including their last nine, but the truth is that City will have been pleased with this draw and expect to progress with the minimum of effort.
Ahead of their weekend league game I spoke about their inability to keep a clean sheet at home.................
Manchester City have played 44 home games in all competititions since the start of last season, kept just 15 clean sheets, conceded exactly one goal on 25 occasions and two or more four times (two and three twice each). That equates to odds of 2.93 for a clean sheet, 1.76 to concede exactly one , 11.0 for two or more. With no Leicester goals today quoted at a maximum even money and one at between 2.45 and 2.625, it is clear where the value lies and that is without taking into account that the Foxes lost 2-1 here in May (scored on 4 of 5 visits to the Etihad..............they actually hit the woodwork and were denied what they felt were two definite penalty appeals in the one game they came up short), scored at both Liverpool and Arsenal this season and have a goal or more in 8 of 9 away starts. The one goal market is interesting if you can find it, but the more widely available BTS option looks significantly overpriced.
They won that 5-1 which played out well both for them and us and you can afford to be a little carefree at the back on occasion when you pose the offensive firepower that they do. That might not serve them too well against some of the other major powers, but that is for another day. City's last 13 Champions League games have seen both teams score in 9 (69%+).
That did not play out as expected, City led very early, were three up inside 23 minutes , with no way back into the game for Basel, with the visitors having almost 900 passes and 90% + accuracy, scoring their fourth and final goal before the hour mark to complete a 4-0 win. City are now out of the FA Cup, have won the League Cup and continued their march towards the Premier League title and there is every chance they will be crowned champions a month today when they host their Manchester rival, if not sooner. That game comes inbetween the first and second leg of the CL quarter finals and the only danger in the interim would be that City could lose focus, with only two games after tonight in the next 27 days !
City did keep another clean sheet when they hosted Chelsea on Sunday, but their record ( see above) is still only 16 in 46 home games since the start of the 16-17 campaign, giving up one 26 times, that works out at odds of 2.88 for a clean sheet, 1.77 to concede exactly one goal and whilst I am not suggesting they are "correct" odds (they would not be 2.88 to keep a clean sheet against Newport County for example) they do serve as an illustration about where any value is likely to lie against a similar level opponent. Despite not having much of the ball and losing the tie in the opening quarter of the first leg, Basel were able to get at the City defence on a number of occasions and have chances to score. Dimitri Oberlin (pictured) had a couple of those and he has scored in his last two road starts in the competition, at Benfica and CSKA Moscow and with a number of very big clubs having looked at the 20yo this season, he might be looking to take this opportunity to put himself in the shop window and looks interesting in the anytime goalscorer market at odds of up to 6.0. The visitors can relax, they will want to avoid a hammering, but should be able to enjoy the occasion and surely City and Guardiola will not overly worry about conceding with what has to be a rotated starting line up.
1.5 units both teams to score 2.20-2.30 general quote.
Good Luck.
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