World Cup Preview: Group F - Argentina, Nigeria, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Iran
It's the final round of Group F games today and pre-tournament group notes went a lot like this:
However, one thing I am sure about, is that facing Argentina in the Estádio do Maracanã on their World Cup debut is a baptism of fire for Bosnia in their first major tournament as an independent nation and to then travel to what could be a very hot Cuiaba to face Nigeria who open against Iran, might not be too much easier. The Nigerians are battle hardened World Cup campaigners (qualified for 5 of the last 6 tournaments), will have learned a lot from competing in the Confederations Cup last year, when they also won the African Cup of Nations, where they got stronger the longer the tournament went.
Now the bad news, if you had to pick a team in World football most likely to shoot themselves in the foot and press the self destruct button, then it would be the Super Eagles, there will be one or two major disruptions, someone will threaten to return home, there will definitely be arguments over money, but that is just the Nigerian way and normally they find a way past all that. When they are good, they can be very good and they have a seemingly endless conveyor belt of talent, having won 4 of the 15, U17 World Cups, including two of the last four, they have also been second three times. Plenty of young talent in the squad, the back four have already won an internatioanl title, are an average 23.5 years of age and have 126 caps between them, in goal, Vincent Enyeama has had a wonderful year for lille in France and got an honourable mention several times in the newsletter, so defensively they look solid. Emmanuel Emenike, Ahmed Musa, John Obi Mikel ,Victor Moses, Victor Obinna etc are all players most of you will recognise and there are bound to be one or two new gems amongst the rest. Conditions should favour them slightly and the knowledge gained from last summer in Brazil will be priceless, especially in terms of pacing yourself through games, which is something I want to discuss in depth in one of the later previews.
1.5 units Nigeria to qualify 2.25-2.40 general quote .
Nigeria are now in a strong position to qualify and are trading at a max 1.14. They will do so with a point today, or if Iran fail to win. Argentina have qualified and will clinch the group win with a point, Bosnia have been eliminated and today will be their final game at their major championship debut appearance.
Nigeria have put themselves in a very nice position, but have not overly impressed and did give B&H several opportunities which they failed to take. But they do like to play on the counter and will get plenty of opportunity to do so today, I still have my concerns about this Argentine side and wrote ahead of their narrow in over Iran:
Argentina went with a very defensive looking 3-5-2 in the first half against Bosnia & Herzegovina , looking much better when switching to 4-3-3 after the break, with the introduction of Gonzalo Higuain. Surely coach Alejandro Sabella did not make the formation decision just on the basis that Higuain was not ready for 90 minutes, it must have more to do with his belief that 4-3-3 leaves too much space for the better teams to exploit.
My concern with Argentina is that they are a bit of an odd mix, fantastic offensive talent in Messi, di Maria, Higuain and Aguero, plus a bunch of centre backs ! Of course they are more than that, but Javier Mascherano, Ezequiel Garay, Hugo Campagnaro, Marcos Rojo and Federico Fernandez all play central defence for their clubs and it seems a queer blend. it is also strange that they are still messing with formation so much at this stage of proceedings, all in all I have my doubts about them, but they seem highly unlikely to be tested today, certainly not defensively .
Argentina are also a group used to facing packed defences on a regular basis at club level, so will not be seeing anything new today, I am not sure that Iran will change their gameplan too much even if they concede, at least until late, but they are not used to this level of competition and coming into this with 24 hours less recovery time than Argentina is also to their disadvantage. Once behind I could see them tiring late in the game , it is very draining and hard to concentrate for 90 mins (180 in total) against quality opposition, when you are on the backfoot the whole time . Space will open up and that will go double if they make some attempt to chase the game.
They needed a late, late wonder strike from Lionel Messi to edge that and given that a point would suit both teams very well today, getting Nigeria + 1 ball and odds against (currently 2.13) would definitely have been my pick if we were not involved, but two things concern me. One is that Argentina are due a performance and today, in Porto Alegre it is where it will be demanded, close to the border, it is estimated that up to 80,000 Argentine supporters will be in the city today, making it as much like a home game as any team, aside from the hosts, will get at these championships. Secondly, if news comes through that Bosnia are two up , then concentration might dip for the Africans and energies saved for the meeting with France in the round of 16.
Having said all that, I have no desire to bet Argentina at these quotes and if I had to bet, would still take Nigeria, who have a very solid backline and can cause the South American "full backs" (see above) problems out wide, with the handicap start, but we do not have to and can "cheer" for our "to qualify" bet, however, it may come about.
My thinking was that Bosnia & Herzegovina would be up for this and not want to go home without a win, but there has been talk of some players asking not to play, which sounds both crazy and is a little worrying. I prefer not to believe things like that and if changes are made, that it is more because they want to give as many as possible a taste of the World Cup. Surely any players coming into the side today will want to impress.
Iran have had 50% possession so far, unfortunately that is across two games ( 28 and 22%) and it is hard to see their approach changing too much today, at least until the latter stages. Yes, they need to win, but any victory will do and a 89th minute winner is as good as one in the 5th minute and harder to come back from ! They will sit back and look to hit Bosnia on the break, they are defensive minded and that is not just at these championships , but in general and that will not suddenly change just because they need the win. Problem of course is if they concede, that will force them out of their gameplan and comfort zone and it has to be said, it is hard to see them scoring twice against anyone, unless their opponent is not "at the races".
Not a game I want to get involved in to be honest, but there could be action late on , especially if this is in the balance and Argentina are leading. Sorry, I have to pass.
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