I sent subscribers three tennis previews with "official" selections this morning, you can read all of them below. Bouchard has already won 2-0 in sets, the two Men's matches are scheduled for later in the day.
WTA:
Down to six here
Petra Kvitova plays
Lucie Safarova in the bottom half semi final tomorrow and the other two quarters will be decided today. We have good value with our outright bet (see bottom of the email) on former champion Kvitova and she (and Safarova) have a big advantage in terms of schedule and the extra rest between games.
Eugenie Bouchard- Angelique Kerber
OK, most of you probably know which way I going with this one. All credit to Kerber for beating Sharapova yesterday and making the final at Eastbourne, so maybe she is now a grass court player, but not in my book. Madison Keys put her in her place in the South Coast event and the only player she beat there who is truly happy on grass, was Ekaterina Makarova and as we discussed yesterday, maybe the Russian is just uncomfortable against fellow lefties. The German has played a lot of tennis in the last 14 days, today will be her 10th match and six of the previous nine have gone the distance.
I am not a fan of Kerber, that is no secret and have made it clear that I think Bouchard is going to the top of the game, so my hands are kind of tied with this match up anyway. Ahead of the Canadian's long semi final with Masha in the French Open I wrote ....
She has met just two solid performers in the tournament Stosur and Muguruza and could easily have gone out to either , we know that Sharapova will never give up, but she looks vulnerable on clay, her movement was not the best again on Tuesday and the serve is up to it's old tricks , she is fading in and out of games and any strong player and we know that Bouchard is going to the top of the game, will take advantage of those dips. This is the Canadian's second consecutive slam semi final and she was impressive against a proven old school clay court player in Carla Suarez Navarro in the quarters. The two met here last year in the second round, with Masha winning 6-2 6-4, two things about that, as in the Muguruza notes, Sharapova is very unlikely to be able to serve as well again as she she did that day (there has just been no evidence of it at RG this year), secondly, this is not the same Eugenie Bouchard who played last year, the 2014 version is a very different animal, one who believes she is closing in on her rightful place at the top of the tennis food chain. She has a big game and confidence to go with it, the experience gained in Melbourne will help her today and she will offer far stronger resistance than Stosur or Muguruza if this goes to a deciding set.
Bouchard actually beat Kerber there in R4, winning for the loss of only three games, the German won only 26% of points on return and had only one break point, it was a very dominant performance and one I fully expect to be repeated today.
1.5 units Eugenie Bouchard -1.5 games 1.885 Pinnacle Sports, similarlines should be available elsewhere and the stright sets win, if you are looking for bigger quotes, makes some appeal.
ATP : Milos Raonic- Nick Kyrgios
The balls are going to take a bit of a pounding here and there will be some brutal hitting.
Raonic hit another 35 aces aces in beating Kei Nishikori yesterday and was very impressive, he was finally broken at these hampionships, but that came in the first game of the match, with the Japanese player, who had won all previous meetings firing out of the blocks, however, once we were into the "meat"of the match, Raonic never looked like being broken and showed some variety on serve. He actually hit his fastest serve of the tournament straight at the body of Nishikori at a decisive moment in the 4th set and that had the effect of a knockout blow, it was a very impressive performance.
Ahead of that I wrote ....
Two up and coming big guns, we discussed Raonic ahead of his three very close sets with Novak Djokovic at Roland Garros, where he served (excuse the pun) us well .....
"Milos Raonic is only 23 yo and still improving, now ranked inside the top 10 and long thought of as having perhaps the best serve in tennis, he has added much to his all round game, especially on return , but this has not come at any cost to his massive serve, which also has great variety.
He has hit 123 aces on clay courts alone this year and has, significantly , saved 70% of the 43 break points he has faced. To put that into some context, Djokovic has hit just 32 aces on the surface and having faced exactly the same number of break points (43) saved 56%. Of course, we have to look at quality of opponent for those numbers to have true meaning, but they are only meant to give an indication of how awesome a weapon the Canadian's serve is.
These two met in Rome three weeks ago, with the Serbian woorld number 2 winning in three very close sets, they split the first two, which both went to tie breaks. We saw with the Errani- Jankovic game yesterday that the Rome form is quite reliable, it is the closest of the tournaments in build up to Roland Garros. In that match, break points were fairly evenly split and Raonic had, as you might expect, a lot of cheap points, starting with 17 aces, he was getting a good look at the Djokovic serve and as already discussed, is a much improved returner.
There is no real pressure on Raonic today, he has picked up a lot of points this week and is freerolling over the next month, with almost no grass court ranking points to defend. I am not sure about the weather today, there is quite a bit of rain forecast for Paris, which might slow things down a little, but perhaps not as much as we might think.
Djokovic was very complementary about his opponent this week :"When he serves that well, there is not much you can do, really.. "He puts a lot of pressure on his opponent and he has improved a lot from the baseline now. "With his backhand, he's hitting down the line, he's very aggressive, which he should be, of course, for somebody of his height and his build. "You know, he's powerful and he uses that serve. Forehand is also very good from back of the court. "So there is an evident improvement in his game and he feels more confident on the court. "You can feel that. "The recent match we had in Rome, as you mentioned, was very close."
I like Raonic with a six game plus handicap, I expect him to take Djokovic to at least one tie breaker and he is not an easy guy to break twice in one set."
Having only reached the second round here last year, he looks set to edge a little closer to that top 5 ranking he craves after this week. He is yet to drop a set at Wimbledon and it is hardly surprising, he has served a whopping 73 aces, which equates to 18+ games and has only allowed one break point, which he saved !
Despite the rain yesterday, the weather stayed quite warm and with sun forecast for today, the courts are going to stay nice and fast, which will suit.
We also spoke of Kyrgios yesterday.....
This looks very interesting for the future. The match is scheduled for second on Centre Court and there is no telling how much nerves might play a part for the young Australian, but the answer is probably not too much on what we have seen so far. The (barely) 19 yo from Canberra is a US Open Junior champion and has burst into the big time here, saving a grand slam record nine match points in defeating world number 14 Richard Gasquet in five long sets, he then made Jiri Vesely , who has just won two Challenger events, look very ordinary and we look to have a new star.
Roger Federer recently flew him to Switzerland so they could practice together, Gasquet said he was a certain top 5 player and slam winner and Andy Murray tipped him as the next big star. You have to feel those three know a little bit and Rafa might have his hands full today handling the youngster's booming serve and brutal ground strokes. Ultra talented teenagers tend not to lack confidence and Kyrgios seems unlikely to freeze on the big stage and has already stated he would only be content with a #1 world ranking. He is certainly capable of taking a set today.
We now know 100% that he is the real deal, but now for the first time the pressure is on and he is also going to be facing someone hitting the ball just as hard (harder) and we saw continued improvement and variety from Raonic yesterday. There is also the chance that the youngster will tire, having already played 17 sets , not having had a break inbetween matches ( he also played six matches at the Nottingham challenger event in build up) and with the endless round of interviews and demand from his homeland after his win yesterday. Also, unlike his previous opponents, Raonic knows what to expect (everyone knows now !), having played him at the French and winning in straight sets.
I make Raonic a strong bet today and will take 1.75 units Milos Raonic -3.5 games 1.95 Pinnacle Sports.
Stan Wawrinka -Roger Federer
We have spoken about the changing of the guard on both Tours, it is definitely happening in the WTA and we have seen signs of the ATP following suit, but Roger Federer can make one more charge at the big time on the courts he feels happiest on.
He plays his close friend and Davis Cup partner Stan Wawrinka today, it has taken Stan the Man a long time to out from under the shadow of Federer. The pair have met 17 times and Wawrinka has won just twice, both on the clay of Monte Carlo, including their last meeting earlier this year, with the "other" Swiss player buoyed, by winning his first slam in Australia.
Fedex will want to avenge that defeat and he is 11-0 h2h on fast courts and 23-3 in sets, the pair have never met on grass, but here at Wimbledon, Federer has been king for a dozen years and Wawrinka has never enjoyed great success, or gone beyond R4 previously.
The seven times previous champion has played less clay court tennis than in recent years coming into this event and that might be a blessing in disguise. He won Halle despite having to actually play only three matches and he has not been troubled in four straight set wins here. He has yet to be broken and has only faced three break point since Round 1.
1.5 units Roger Federer -4 games 1.91 Pinnacle Sports.
Good Luck.
Written June 30th
I had a long look at the outright markets in the Women's Singles, it was hard to find any value in the top half, but the bottom half of the draw offered more....
Petra Kvitova did us a big favour when winning this in 2011 and since losing in Round 1 on her first two appearances at the All England Club, her record here is SF-W-QF-QF with a 23-3 record. Two of those losses came against a Serena Williams at the very peak of her game and without perhaps the greatest player of all time baring her way, she could be hunting down her fourth Wimbledon title. Kvitova has not really built on that grand slam success, but she is still #6 in the world and this is the tournament she feels most at home in.
The Czech player withdrew from Eastbourne in her warm up event, but if there were any doubts about her fitness coming in, they were dispelled with her epic three set defeat of Venus Williams on Friday. Make no mistake, that was a throwback and more like the old Venus and she was moving and serving well. maybe just 2-3 current players on tour would have beaten her that on that day and surface.
Kvitova said afterwards:“This is the best match I have played on grass since I won the title, but I was very nervous before the start. " I knew of course that she’s a five-time champion here and loves to play on the Centre Court as much as I do. "I was just a little stronger than her mentally, that’s why I won.”
He thigh was strapped but didn't appear to give her any problems and she has had 72 hours to recover for this week's exertions. Today she plays Shuai Peng, who is solid and good at the net, but Kvitova leads that series 4-0 and should ease through to her 5th staright quarter, where she could meet Wozniacki and then Radwanska in the semis (more of that later), again she has a good record and grass court wins over both.
She seems far and away the most likely to come through the bottom half of the draw and there are a LOT of dangerous players for favourite Maria Sharapova to get through in the top section, not least of which is Sabine Lisicki.
1.75 units Petra Kvitova to win outright 5.0 which is the quote with virtually every bookmaker trading the event.
