Tuesday's clubgowi newsletter(s)
Apr 09, 2014
clubgowi subscribers received two newsletters yesterday and you can read both below, in full, as samples of what the service provides on a daily basis.
Tuesday April 8th #1
There were good value odds available on Metz at half time last night, although the best quote I think I saw over the weekend was St Etienne (0-1) -0.25 ball circa 2.17 entering the final 15 minutes ( circa 20 left to play), given that was when Nice had conceded most, were sitting back and the hosts throwing men forward. Stats are very useful as starting points, especially when you can incorporate them into what teams need from matches and how games are playing out. Anyway, I digress....
There is a follow up newsletter at 16.00 UK time today looking at the rest of the action and it will hopefully, be a little more interesting than this one !
The UEFA Champions League games do not overly inspire me from a betting point of view, we were firmly in the Real Madrid and PSG camps last week (previews below) and I expect both to qualify, but there are bound to be a few twists and turns along the way.
They might adopt a slightly different approach under Carlo Ancelotti, but Real's traditional modus operandi in such games is to look for an away goal and then ease off, witness the 3-2 loss in Galatasaray last season, that was one of my favourite ever previews and never one to resist a plug, I virtually wrote a match review 12 hours before kickoff, with the game playing out perfectly ........happy days !
They are very much still in the La Liga title race and will be aware of probably needing to win their last six starts to clinch the domestic championship, whilst also looking for win number ten in europe's premier club competition. So, I doubt they will want to expend more energy than is necessary tonight, or pick up any needless injuries, they will also arrive a little, if not nervous, then aware of what happened here last season and Dortmund do get Robert Lewandowski (see below) back tonight, which gives them a greatly increased chance of getting on the scoresheet he notched five goals in the two home games with Real last season. Progression is a VERY tall order for Dortmund, but we have spoken a lot recently about the pragmatic approach of German teams and coach Jurgen Klopp has made his thoughts on tonight's game clear, he wants to win and if they are eliminated, to "go out with a passionate performance".
On reflection, I felt Dortmund deserved a goal in Madrid, they should get one, maybe two tonight and I do not see Real busting a gut to score two and definitely not three, unless the situation absolutely dictates they have to, or the game gets ridiculously stretched and I do not see it playing out like that, unless Dortmund are 2-0 up with ten minutes to play. Ancelloti apeared to play much of the second half of the first leg with future matches in mind and more of the same is on the cards. If Real score first, expect them to sit back and not worry about conceding twice, if the home side edge ahead then the visitors priority will be not to concede again. I do not feel that Dortmund should get a handicap start under the circumstances and have to chance a little, Lewandowski to score anytime at 2.75 + looks too big and you might be able to get better "in running", he has 16 Champions League goals in the last two season and 13 have come after the 37th minute. However, I will opt for 1.25 units Borussia Dortmund +0.25 ball 1.98 asian line/Ibramarket.
Championship: Leicester City- Brighton
City played on Friday, which would normally give them an edge coming into a Tuesday fixture, they have longer recovery time (obviously) and can also fit an extra day's training in, if required.
However, they officially gained promotion on Saturday after QPR lost at Bournemouth and with the players all on a day off and many watching results together, the celebrations started early and I suspect it will be hard for them to be at their best tonight. Of course, boss Nigel Pearson has made all the usual comments about looking for 100 points and wanting to win the title, but the latter is likely to come soon enough anyway and tonight, after a decade out of the top flight, it will be party time central at the King Power Stadium and maybe hard for the home players to concentrate fully on the game.
Brighton can use the celebrations to feed off, knowing that they still have a chance to break into the top six and the playoffs, they are in eighth, five points behind Reading and have a decent schedule remaining, with three home starts against teams all in the bottom five. Those clubs will be fighting for survival of course, but on paper, are games the Seagulls must feel they can win and let's be honest, if you had to pick a a time to travel to play the runaway league leaders, this would be it.
We have some (not entirely flattering) recent notes on the visitors from last midweek ....
Brighton are not a favourite of mine, they simply do not score enough and actually come here without a goal in almost 300 minutes. However, they are now four points off the playoff pace and need to start gambling a little more. They have been creating chances and have actually been denied by the woodwork a Championship high 14 times, they brought in young striker Jesse Lingard on loan from Manchester United to try and adress these offensive woes, but he has yet to score in seven starts. He had six goals and three assists with Birmingham City on a previous loan deal earlier this season and the run must be proving very frustrating for both club and player.
They will get few better opportunities to break that duck than tonight, with Rovers having conceded in their last 7 starts, at an average of 2.14 goals per game. Both have to look for the win and I feel this will buck the recent Brighton trend and go "over" with both scoring in the process.
They drew that 3-3 and showed plenty of spirit to come from behind twice, but were back to their old ways on Saturday in a 0-0 draw at Barnsley, enjoying plenty of possession and chances,but failing to take advantage. However, the result did bring a little promise, with 15 minutes off the bench from striker Craig Mackail-Smith after missing 13 months out through injury. That gives them more options offensively and they will arrive buoyed by winning the reverse fixture 3-1, which was the last time City tasted defeat. Hosts have denied they will make too many changes tonight, but the temptation to use a few players who have missed out recently will be great (especially as many senior players are currently negotiating new contracts) and we will surely see some rotation, Jamie Vardy (36-16-10) is carrying a knock and seems unlikely to be risked, he has scored or assisted in 17 of City's 27 wins this season. Vistors plus the draw for me. 1.25 units Brighton +0.5 ball 2.17 asian line/Ibramarket.
Good Luck.
UEFA Champions League: Paris St Germain- Chelsea (April 2nd)
I have already indicated several times already this season how strong I feel this PSG squad are and now their season really starts. They have wrapped up the Ligue 1 title now and reached the last 8 of the Champions League and I guess coming into the campaign, that would have been their two targets, but it is now that the hard work begins and the Qatar Investment Authority can see exactly what, in world terms, their masive investment has brought them. Money has been no concern in building this team, 55 million for Edinson Cavani to play out of position (or not at all) for example and at times, with upwards of 200 m euros worth of talent warming the bench. That was the case in the first leg against Leverkusen, my preview of which is reproduced at the foot of the email. They won that 4-0 and in truth, have rarely got out of second gear this season and I wonder how good they can be.
The worry is that they do not meet the highest level of competition domestically week in week out, but that could also be said about Bayern and Dortmund ( possibly Real, Atletico and Barce too) and few would question their credentials. They have certainly not be been found wanting when they have had to up their level a notch, but (of course) Jose Mourinho has started the mind games and has been questioning the quality of Ligue 1 this week, looking to get inside the head of his counterpart.
However, I feel PSG will have learned a lot from their quarter final with Barcelona last season, where they were unfortunate not to win both legs IMO and they look much stronger this time round. They toyed with Benfica here in the group stage, I underestimated the Portugese side at the time ( see below) and they are now our Europa League selection and on reflection, what PSG did there in the opening 30 minutes was incredible.
Upfront, they have Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Edinson Cavani and Ezequiel Lavezzi, Chelsea have Fernando Torres and Demba Ba ( Samuel Eto'o did not travel) and that alone is a mismatch. Mourinho has spoken all season about his lack of striking options and that is true and not his usual fodder for the media. The Blues are a different animal at Stamford Bridge , but have lost their last two away starts at Aston Villa and Crystal Palace and in this competition drew at Galatasaray ( when they started well , but faded) and lost 1-0 at Basel, where they left they game on the team bus. The visitors are hugely experienced at this level and PSG will want a lead to take to the second leg, not easy, but odds are nice and I simply think the hosts are stronger and meeting Chelsea at the perfect time. 1.5 units Paris St Germain -0.5 ball 2.11 asian line/Ibramarket.
UEFA Champions League: Real Madrid- Borussia Dortmund
These two met at the semi final stage of the competition last season, with Dortmund winning 4-1 in the home leg, losing the return 2-0. I think it is fair to say that Borussia have gone slightly backwards since then, although the Bundesliga table indicates just by three points, however, they are less of a surprise package and forewarned is forearmed.
Real have suffered a dip in form, well , for three halves, losing that huge "derby" with Barcelona and then away to Sevilla, but at least stopped the "rot" with a 5-0 win at the weekend and this season, under Carlo Ancelotti have looked stronger, faster , not as suspect at the back and more flexible in terms of game plan. He was in charge of PSG at this stage last season, but watched the Real-Dortmund games and his reading of them was spot on , which was that for three halves of football Real were on top and very comfortable, in the other, they were destroyed.
Real will not want to travel to Germany without a lead and would prefer it to be two or more and looking at team news, this heavily favours the hosts, with Dortmund decimated by injury and suspension. They are without star striker Robert Lewandowski ( 35-22-14 in Bundesliga and CL) who is suspended, in addition to injuries to Neven Subotić , Marcel Schmelzer , Jannick Bandowski, Sven Bender , İlkay Gündoğan and Jakub Błaszczykowski . Łukasz Piszczek has struggled with injury all season and did not feature in the weekend league fixture.
That is a lot of talent to be missing, seven of the players named above played in the semi here last year (another has left) and some inexperienced players are going to have to overperform in a very daunting arena.
Hard to put into words how important Lewandowski is, he has failed to score or assist in three Champions League games this season , all of which they lost and he failed to register in all six Bundesliga matches in which Dortmund have tasted defeat. Last season in the CL, when he scored or assisted they were 6-2-0, when he didn't 1-2-2. However, it is defensively they look severely weaker and I just do not know how they are going to stop the Real offensive wave. I favour a resounding win, by 2 goals +.1.75 units Real Madrid -1.75 ball 2.38 asian line/Ibramarket.
Good Luck.
Tuesday April 8th #2
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Wednesday.
I have had to do a complete about turn tonight, I had two non league bets I was very keen on, including one in the Conference South, where I get to see a handful of games per year (I can walk to my nearest team, who play in that division). Anyway, limits are not only too small, but the bookmakers are being ultra sensitive to these games, I/we tried out two tiny bets on other games, not the matches we were interested in and odds dropped 9 and 14 "clicks" respectively. It is better just to pass .
League 1: Brentford-Crawley Town
Huge game for the Bees, they could get this promotion issue sorted very quickly if one or two results go their way this week and I have fingers and toes crossed that is the case.But they need to start with three points tonight.
They are coming off a very comfortable 3-1 win over Notts County on Saturday, where they had the luxury of being able to take off and save for tonight, three key players in Donaldson, Forshaw and Tarkowski, at around the hour mark. That might be the case again tonight if they go two + up and look and feel comfortable, they have two centrals defenders now on nine yellow cards, Tarkowski and Dean and Brentford are trying to nurse both through to Sunday, when I think the cutoff date applies.
Bees are in confident mood (there is a recent preview at the foot of the email for a little background information), Crawley exactly the opposite, they have lost five in a row now and the difference between the two is reflected not just by the league table, but by the comments of the respective managers ahead of this game......
Brentford : Mark Warburton :"We are in good shape, with 84 points and six games to go. There are many twists and turns to come."We have a number of young players and some really good senior senior pros. They learnt a lot from last year and the experiences everyone talks about."The boys are playing good football and I like to think it is the type of football the fans want to come and see."Crawley are well organised, defensively strong and have some good attacking players. They will be a formidable opponent."
Crawley: John Gregory: "It is game after game after game. The amount of games have started to tell on one or two."Some are not quite as fresh as they have been and have not had the same impetus they had when we played Wolves barely three weeks ago."Since that game we have not won."We haven't scored enough goals of late. Defeats in the last five matches have been a huge shock to me."
No real prpblems for the Bees and they ought to win, but -1 ball 1.96 is skinny, they are a perfect 4 from 4 against Crawley, but all have been by exactly one goal. However, the hosts will , I suspect, look for the second as a safety margin and in order that they can again take the option to remove one or two for the weekend and Town are drained after playing catch up in terms of postponed matches and have played two matches more than Brentford, who are probably the fittest squad in the division anyway, over the last five weeks and losing is always more tiring than winning !
Brentford are 2-4 (goals scored-conceded) at home in the opening 15 minutes, 14-1 between the 16th and 45th. They are not a team you want to chase the game against, they have led at the break in 11 of 16 wins at Griffin Park ( a magical place under floodlights !) and are a perfect 19-0-0 this season when leading at half time. The price I want is -1 ball 2.20 + or -0.75 ball 2.0 something like that and if we do not get a goal for either side though that opening 10 minute spell and a good chance we will not, then we will get the required odds and I would suggest 1.25 units.
Championship: AFC Bournemouth- Reading
Hosts are 7-1-1 from their last nine starts and looking to continue an unlikely run at the top six and could close to within two points of Reading with the win. We spoke about them a lot after Eddie How's return to the club last season, the transformation was incredible and once they find form, are very difficult to beat/stop.
We spoke about Reading ahead of their recent win at Birmingham ....They (City) have kept only one clean sheet in 14 starts and another looks unlikely against a team with as much offensive threat as the Royals. The visitors will be disappointed they have not put pressure on the top two, due to a lack of consistency, but falling out of the top six last week, will surely have served as a major wake up call and they will be looking for three points today. They are far happier on the road, where teams do not sit back and the Royals can use their pace to hit teams on the counter, they have already posted 8 of their 15 wins on the road and have scored 11 in their last four road games, 3 or more in 3, trips to Millwall. QPR and Leeds United.
Adam Le Fondre (at this level),Royston Drenthe, Pavel Pogrebnyak amongst others, give them a touch of class up front, especially the hugely underated , but not by Royals fans, Jobi McAnuff. he is finally getting a run of games after niggling injuries and I fancy him strongly today against either Paul Caddis or the inexperienced right back options for City.
The lack of consistency resurfaced following that 2-1 win, with just one point from home games against Huddersfield Town and Barnsley, but a win at Charlton on Sunday got their post season ambitions back on track, much stronger on the road, but not a team we can fully trust.
I expect this is to get increasingly open the longer it goes and "some" goals to eventually come and think I have found an angle for us to exploit. The Cherries are 17-8 (goals scored-conceded) at home in the opening 30 minutes of the second half (14-13 through the other 60 minutes), the Royals have scored 12 of 28 ( 43%) through the same period and given that the hosts will have to push on after the break, or Reading get more adventurous, I want to bet the "over" at half time if there has been 0 or 1 goal in the first half and as always, we are playing 11 v 11. Hard to be specific, but I want to take the first goal line which is offered at odds of 2.0 + for 1.5 units.
Championship games that are 0-0,1-0,0-1 at the break average 1.36 second half goals, we already have good reason to believe this should produce more and we might only be asked to give up 1.25 goals.
Championship: Middlesbrough- Birmingham
Just one cleansheet in 18 for Birmingham and they have shipped 22 goals in ten starts, they are coming off a hugely valuable 3-1 win at Doncaster Rovers, but to be honest, they could/should have conceded 3-4 were it not for a stand out performance from City keeper Darren Randolph. Offensively, they pose a big threat with 13 goals in their last six starts and on loan Manchester United striker Federico Macheda is on fire, with 9 goals, at the rate of one every 86 minutes.
Boro have scored 15 of 28 home goals (54%) before the break, so a good opportunity for this to get stretched early and a repeat of the four goals they shared in the reverse fixture might be on the cards. Winger Albert Adomah has switched to the left flank recently and has scored three in three and should have plenty of joy tonight with City still struggling in that right back position (see previous preview above). 1.25 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.38 asian line/Ibramarket.
Good Luck.
League 1 : Leyton Orient- Brentford (written March 15th)
This is live on Sky at 12.15 today and is a massive game in terms of promotion. I cannot let it pass and have to take a quick look at it.
Back in October, Orient led the Bees by 14 points and I made it clear, on more than one occasion, that I felt it was "impossible" for the East London side to finish ahead of Brentford over 46 matches, they just did not have the strength in depth or spending power and as sad as it may be, money talks in football.
Now the gap is down to a single point and the visitors have two games in hand.
Let me say first of all, all credit to the O's for hanging on in there, they did add to the squad in the transfer window, not players I would have advocated signing, but it has increased options. However, putting my bias to one side for a moment and cards on the table, I have loved Brentford from the moment I was born and for some reason have never liked Orient much ( there is no real rivalry between the two btw), you cannot compare the two starting elevens. Looking at it man for man, there is not one Orient player who would make the Bees team on a regular basis, that is not to say they do not have value as a team, I am talking individual for individual. Likewise the bench, Brentford could name a second bench superior to the Orient first and the visitors are just better across the board.
I do not know what the budget is at Orient, but could make an educated guess, I know more of less what the Bees operate on and we are perhaps talking about two-three times more and at any level of football, that will give you a huge advantage. Brentford have a squad which is being constantly upgraded and built not just for this season, but to compete and not simply survive in the Championship.
The Bees rested a couple of key players in midweek and played within themselves, with this match in mind and will be more or less at full strength today. Orient had no such luxury away to Port Vale and today have major doubts over central defender Mathieu Baudry (31-2-1)) and midfielder Romain Vincelot (31-0-1). They will be given until the last moment to prove their fitness, the last/only game both missed was the 0-1 home defeat to Preston ( OK, Baudry played the first 20 mins), we "followed" that game and PNE were dominant. These are not the two who get the headlines for Orient, but a lot of play goes through Vincelot and Nathan Clarke and Baudry are a battering ram pair of old fashioned central defenders, very effective, but not so much so individually. Of course , both could play, but it will be a risk.
All the pressure is on Orient IMO, they will have to force matters and are better against the stronger teams when they can sit back a little, huge away support in the stadium, the maximum 2,700 tickets were snapped up quickly and double could have been sold and I know quite a few have got tickets for home areas. The stadium will be jumping and I expect the away fans to be dancing back to Leyton tube station.
1.25 units Brentford to win 2.50 + general quote.... there is up to 2.62 on offer.
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