At clubgowi we usually average circa 115 bets per month, we are 109 for January and have given two today and have a big day scheduleD for tomorrow and with Friday also falling into this month, we seem sure to hit closer to 125. We have had an incredible start to 2014, which included Li Na winning the Australain Open (link) and we are already +39 points, for a ROI of +28.63% in January.  We cannot keep that up for the year of course, it is impossible and even a huge +18% from a similar turnover in February is going to see the yearly figure drop 5%, but I am quietly confident that we can match last year's amazing figures .......

There were 1,317 selections in 2013, stakes were 1,707 units, with a profit of 260.5 units, a ROI of +15.26%.

Remember, across the free newsletter, website and social media pages, you will get to see one in ten of the clubgowi previews, most weeks there will be an extra circa 27 full previews like the one below, that only appear in subscribers email in-boxes.

Forget results for the moment, covering so many matches, I am going to have a LOT of losers, it doesn't matter, as soon as you realise that, you will win more. It is only long term results and quality of content which matter. The two selections today can both lose, they are samples of the service only and should be treated as such ( if they do, we will still be +26.2% for the month) , the question you should ask yourself is if you are more likely to win long term getting 8-12 of these newsletters per week , or not and I will give you a clue..........it is not a trick question.

Monday January 27th

The policy of keeping things tight yesterday worked out well for us, as did taking the bigger handicap on both Roma and Monaco, the golf was less fruitful, but I felt we optimised profits on the day.
 

I have two matches to discuss today, but let's start with a quick look ahead to tomorrow, when we have pretty much a full Premier and Football League progamme of games, weather permitting, the rain has been relentless and they will have been some very busy groundsmen out since early morning trying to get pitches in a playable condition.
 

Anyway, I am going to split tomorrow into two newsletters, the first at the standard sending time of 10.00 (UK) will look at the Premier and Championship games and the follow up, which I am going to hold off with until 16.00 will cover all the lower league matches, we should have a pretty good idea about what is, or is not on by then, it means I am not previewing postponed games and will also, hopefully, make it even easier to "get on", with the asian lines very established by that time. I suspect this will come at a cost in terms of losing some value, the fixtures look really good BTW and I would love to take one or two teams "officially" now for big stakes, but I think it is the best way to approach this round of fixtures.

Ligue 2: Angers- Dijon

Weather forecast is dry today in Angers, with the wind picking up through the early afternoon, which should ensure playing conditions are pretty good for what is a very attractive looking clash between two teams hoping to play top flight football next season. The hosts would open up a four point lead over Tours in 4th with the win and actually close the gap on leaders Metz, which looked like it was heading for double figures a couple of weeks ago, to just two points. Dijon would move to within a point of Angers with the win and that would blow the promotion race wide open , with 2nd and 9th only separated by four points.
 

Lets begin with a look at the visitors as we have discussed them very recently, ahead of that 3-2 extra time defeat away to Auxerre last Thursday, when I wrote .... Dijon have named their strongest available squad, but striker Koro Koné (15-4-2), centre back William Rémy (12-1-1) and midfielder Rémi Mulumba (14-0-0) are all injured, plus left back Samuel Souprayen(17-0-1) and ever present centre back Zakaria Diallo (20-1-1)  both suspended. That means big defensive changes and limited options in the middle of the backline. The visitors are just four points off the top 3 and travel to play second placed Angers on Monday, I would argue that is a far more important game for them and given the team news, one I think they will/should give priority to.
 

We sided with Auxerre there, who took a 2-0 lead and looked a sure winner, before allowing Dijon back into things late in the game. Having put themselves through extra time and still having lost, the visitors were probably wishing they not "bothered", but all credit to them for battling back ( he said through gritted teeth), especially short of so many key players and against an opponent with an impressive home record.Tonight they get left back Souprayen back from his ban, but Diallo (see both above) is still suspended and he is joined in the "sin bin" by young midfielder Brian Babit, who is very much a fringe player at present, although he has seen some game time from the bench in each of the last seven Ligue 2 matches. Koné , Rémy and Mulumba all remain sidelined (again, see above) and they are joined by defensive midfielder Sekou Baradji ( 9-1-0), who has forced his way back into the team recently, after a long spell out injured and he has started in four of the last five league games. I wrote a lengthy piece on Baradji earlier in the season and about how important I felt he was to Dijon, the coach seemed to disagree, but I can only summise that the holding player had an unreported injury at the time, anyway, they are unbeaten and average 2.11 points a game when he plays, that drops to 1.18 when he is missing. 20 yo striker Jérémie Bela has been added to the squad for the first time since August.
 

Short of options, especially defensively and coming off 120 minutes at Auxerre in tough conditions and where they tried to chase the game in the last 15, with ten men. To then play at a strong opponent just four days later and one who have had 48 hours + longer recovery time, having played on Tuesday and no travel (Angers were at home last midweek), is a very big ask. Dijon made the short trip to Auxerre and back late on Thursday and then the much longer journey to Angers ( five hours if by road) I assume, yesterday, Which leaves very limited recovery/prep time.

Angers are five games unbeaten in all competitions and this is a very big week for them, they host basement club CA Bastia on Friday and six points from the two games would cement their position in the top 3 and give themselves a little breathing space.They are unchanged from the squad which won in Chateauroux, ten days ago, striker Jérémy Blayac (15-4-1) returns after being rested in the midweek win over Ligue 1 Sochaux in midweek, as a precaution. All the advantages are with the home side and I have to favour them quite strongly for this.
 

1.5 units Angers -0.5 ball 2.09 asian line/Ibramarket.

Angers:Alexandre Letellier, Grégory Malick,  Arnold Bouka Moutou, Fabien Boyer, Djibril Konate, Romain Thomas,Olivier Auriac, Sofiane Boufal, Charles Diers, Ludovic Gamboa, Ismael Keita, Vincent Manceau,  Khaled Ayari, Jérémy Blayac, Richard Socrier, Mohamed Yattara

Dijon:Lecomte, Perraud - Souprayen, Bamba, Paye, Paulle, Urfer- Cissé, Gastien, Marié, Amalfitano, Bérenguer, Philippoteaux - Thil, Tavares, Bela

League 2 : Scunthorpe United-Fleetwood Town
 

OK, this is a big game for Town whom I saw as most likely League 2 winners pre season and my notes, written at that time, are reproduced at the foot of the email. They will go top with the win tonight, replacing United and win , lose or draw, we have good value with our outright bet with Fleet trading at circa 1.44 for promotion this morning......

The rest of this match preview is only for subscribers to the full service and just for today, also to those who have signed up to the free newsletter (see sign up box to the right of this post). As always, do not make assumptions about what the selection is, there is often a counter argument and the final analysis might not always take you to what you feel is the obvious conclusion.

Good Luck.

League 2 outright :Fleetwood Town ( written July 25th)

We discussed Town, albeit briefly, ahead of their 2-0 midweek win over League 1 side Coventry City ....

Fleetwood are old favourites of ours, they have been very busy in the Summer and have made nine new signings to a squad which was considered an early season promotion front runner in their first ever Football league Campaign last season, they only finished nine points off the playoff pace and which will surely be a big player this time round. In stark contrast to City, they have plenty of both league experience amongst their group and keen competition for most starting places. They are coming off a 4-0 defeat of Preston North End at the weekend and with the team from Deepdale half the odds of City for promotion, it is hard to disagree with the hosts position as favourite to win this evening. I doubt he will start tonight, but latest signing for Fleet is 25 yo central defender Ryan Cresswell who was named in the PFA League 2 team of the year last season and is typical of the kind of player they are looking to buy. When they were in the Conference North, they were looking to si gn National level players and now, those who will be able to make them competitive at not just League 2, but League 1 level.

Town coach Graham Alexander has insisted that every member of the squad has a chance of regular first-team action this season:"The picture is open for everyone. If they train well, play well as a team and contribute to the team ethic then they have a chance. If they didn't have a part to play then simply put, they wouldn't be here.

Such competition for places augurs very well, Alexander said all the new guys had settled in and that the whole group had bonded and benefited from the training camp in Austria, where it was even hotter than the UK is currently. The players who did not feature in the big win on Saturday will be especially keen to showcase their talents and stake a claim for a starting place and I favour the home win.

In that preview I touched upon how I have been following Fleetwood since their Conference North days,  they were always going to get into the National and it only took two seasons to go one better and make it into the Football League.  Their ambition is to go much further and after making big investment ahead of the 2012-13 season, they were quoted as low as 4-1 and favourites in some books to win League 2. I always felt that was too short and too soon, but a second year push feels pretty much right, they are better odds too, with what I would argue is a much stronger squad and definitely one better equipped to handle the "rigors" of League 2, they also now know what to expect, are in a "weaker division" and have a coach with more recent Football League experience than his predecessor, with former coach Micky Mellon leaving the club last December. That gave Graham Alexander half a season to work out what was required and the off season to bring in his own men.

In 22 seasons as a player, Alexander made over 840 Football League appearances and that gives you some idea about the kind of man he is, averaging 40 league games per year across more than two decades. He was also one of the best penalty takers or all time, so don't expect Fleet to miss too many of those.

Before we discuss the squad, I want to give a little background info and these notes were taken from a preview written almost two years ago...

We have a full round of Conference National games tonight and I am taken by the Alfreton Town- Fleetwood Town match up, long standing readers might remember that I was very big on Fleet when they were in the Blue Square North, they have terrific financial clout and once in the "fifth" division, were never going to wait long before making a push for the Football League, how many sixth tier teams, as they were at the time, would spend £250,000 on upgrading their pitch ( playing surface, not stadium !) ? They are a big player in financial terms at this level and pay salaries far in excessive of almost all the other teams, they certainly dwarf tonights opponents in terms of budget and personnel.

They won the Conference that year with an incredible 31 wins and record 103 points, equally impressive was the fact they turned down about half a dozen seven figure offers for top striker Jamie Vardy that season, money that would have been unthinkable for any other non league club to even consider refusing.

Here are some notes from last season in a similar vein from the blog.

You could make a case for the four promoted clubs Gillingham, Port Vale, Rotherham and Bradford City being amongst the biggest half dozen last season, either in terms of support, potential or budget, or a combination of all three and the four coming down, do not really compare, with the obvious exception of Portsmouth, who I can accept as favourites, but every match they play will be like a cup final for opponents and all will be "up" for the game when Pompey come calling. Anyway, overall, a weaker League 2 IMO.

In addition to signing Ryan Cresswell (see above), Alexander has also brought in another central defender in Mark Roberts from Stevenage Borough, who, like his coach, is built out of granite, he played 45 times in the Boro L2 promotion winning side of 2010-11 and 90 of 92 league games at the higher level over the last two campaigns. This is what promotion campaigns are built on at the lower level, two talented central defenders who will be unlucky to miss more than a handful of starts between them.

31 yo left back Stephen Jordan, who played with the coach in the Premier League with Burnley just three years ago has also joined, along with left sided midfielder Jeff Hughes who has played 250 + games at League 1 and above , including 45 of 46 for Notts County last season, who desperately wanted to re-sign him. Midfielder Steven Schumacher is another who was part of a L2 promotion side with Bury two years ago (43-9-4 that season) and he has since made 71 appearances at the higher level, contributing 14 goals and eight assists from the centre of the park, in a team battling relegaton. Another goalscoring midfielder in Matty Blair has also signed from York City, he was 41-10-4 in their promotion season and 44-6-5 in his first season in the FL, he was City's best player in each of the last two seasons and was Alexanders first signing, snatching him from Portsmouth who were very keen.

These are men, men to lead you into battle and when things get tough, they will roll their sleeves up and battle a little harder.

Fleetwood are going to have a far more solid look this season and there is absolutely no chance they will come close to conceding the 41 road goals they did last camapign. They can also expect a greater contribution from midfield this season, both in terms of goals and chances created. The very classy Damien Johnson and prolific Jon Parkin remain (see that blog post link above), the bulky Parkin along with Jamille Matt ( 40-18-9 for Kidderminster), Steven Gillespie, David Ball and Gareth Evans, give them five strikers who know where the back of the net is and they are going to get chances to score plenty this season. Antoni Sarcevic is a 21 yo I do not know much about, but he has made a big impression in a short time at the club, he started his league career at Crewe, which is always a good introduction, as they can spot and develop a player, he played 180 minutes against Preston and Coventry, where Town won by a combined 6-0 , he had two non league seasons at Chester City, w here they were promoted twice and also won two cups, so has got the winning habit and a whole host of league clubs were said to be interested, but Fleet, again, got in first.

I see no weak spots and good cover in every position, which is something you just do not see at this level too often.

I simply cannot see them not playing League 1 football next season and will be shocked if they do not finish top 3.

1.25 units Fleetwood Town to win League 2 @ 9.0 general quote.

1.75 units Fleetwood Town to win promotion 2.75 +.... there is quite a bit of 2.875 around...... that is usually a little on the short side for me, given that we have to wait 9-10 months for a payout, but if by some miracle this could be decided in say one month, I would be happy betting twice the stake, so have to take this .

Good Luck.

Remember any questions about the newsletter service, Sportmarket Pro or the website, please feel free to email me at gowi8@btinternet.com