Take a couple of minutes of your time to read yesterday's clubgowi subscriber newsletter J-League notes. That formed one of Saturday's three newsletters, one of 12 of this week's subscriber emails, the weekly cost to receive these is as low as 19 euros, so the one below works out at about 1.5 euros. Read those notes (results do not matter) and ask yourself if you would be better off long term paying those 19 euros per week, or not ? Over 91% of subscribers who sign up for a six month clubgowi subscription renew, of the other 9%, many return at some later stage, I think most of them already know the answer !
Saturday August 2nd
There will be a brief half time update as close to 11.50 UK time as possible for the five J-League matches which start at 11.00.
The scheduled follow up newsletter will follow at 13.00 with all today's other news.
J-League:
We are now exactly at the half way stage of the season with 17 rounds played and teams should be more or less back to full fitness having played 3-4 matches since the break for the World Cup, ahead of the resumption I wrote .......
After today's two catch up games, they will have played 14 rounds in J-League, which gives us a good sample of matches.
So far this season we have seen a big decrease in goals, down from 2.90 at this stage last season, to 2.40 this time round, a full 0.5 goal per game fewer , which is massive. Trend has been upward over the last dozen years and I prefer to believe that this is just a blip and that we will see goals increase, maybe significantly, over the next 20 rounds and maybe especially during the coming weeks.
Other numbers have remained fairy constant, it is not like we have seen a big increase in the number of drawn matches,infact, there have been fewer, they are currently at 22.58% and were 22.22% for the whole of last season and 26.98 % at this stage, which further implies that games have been just as open, but the goals have simply not come yet.
Last year I wrote a mid season stats update, the gist of which was ......."a huge amount of the J-League action is taking place after the break in any case, with 64% of all goals being scored in the second half and a lot of matches being turned on their heads, with 31% of teams who are ahead at half time, not winning the match and being as likely to lose, as to draw."
We did really well by betting in games which were level at half time and where we had firm opinion about how the second period was likely to play out, benefits of this approach were that we were avoiding teams which had started badly, we were invariable getting much better odds and were also betting in a period when goals were far more likely. This season, 56 matches have been level at HT (45.16%) and of those, just shy of 70% have produced a positive (non draw after 90 minutes) result and this looks a good policy for us again .
Having said that, it might take a game of two for teams to get back into the swing of things, but it is definitely something we can watch and that is made so much easier, at least for those of us based in Europe, by the matches today and Saturday and for the forseeable future apparently. all scheduled for mid/ late morning.
The problem this week is that all teams are likely to need a competitive game, maybe two, to get back into the swing of things, but there is a full round at the weekend and again next Wednesday, so it is not going to take too long !
I then updated these numbers last Saturday ...........Last week's 11 games produced 26 goals, so seasonal totals were pretty much unchanged, but we have had the match for teams to blow away the cob-webs now and it is worth noting that the four teams that played in midweek, all scored at least twice at the weekend. Also that the quick turnaround normally means goals in J-League, something we touched upon earlier in the season, although that round was the exception which proved the rule, anyway, we should see more goals from here on in and especially after the half time break.
The midweek games, saw an average of 3.0 per game, but they were an odd mix as five actually finished "under", the numbers have started to edge up , but we have no quite seen the trends we are looking for yet from the league as a whole.
Goals are still hanging around the 2.45 pg mark and home wins are almost at an all time low for this stage of the season at 35.29%, this is between 6.5% and 10% lower for each of the last five seasons at the midway point. Those numbers are , of course, not unrelated and if there are fewer home wins, we can expect fewer goals and vice versa, but is this just a blip and can we expect more of both in the second half of the campaign, or will the trend continue ?
At the moment, I am still leaning towards the former, but with current numbers, more action traditionally taking place after the break and only an average of 3 matches per round ending in home wins, I think we should be very wary of taking low pre match odds about any home team.
That is a problem today, as three of the four teams on my short list are playing at home and one of them is quoted at fairly low odds. We have actually done ok with home wins since the restart and likewise by following both FC Tokyo and Gamba Osaka over recent weeks, but I am going to have to let the former go today at sub 1.90, which is below my usual minimum and despite feeling there was one more week in them and getting striker Edu back ( see below), I will have to pass on FCT today, opponent Shimizu S-Pulse, also ended their winless run last week ,have a new coach in charge today and boast a decent record in the capital, including winning here in the cup earlier this season, so perhaps it is for the best.
That leaves three other matches......
Gamba Osaka- Yokohama F.Marinos
This will probably not surprise many of you, Gamba have served us well recently and have been on fire offensively, scoring 11 goals in their last three J-League starts, including five at Vissel Kobe last week , ahead of their 4-0 demolition of Shimizu ten days ago I wrote .....
Gamba were the team I spoke about on Saturday when I said.....By the way, Ficcadenti (FCT coach) sees the world through rose tinted glasses and always focuses on the positives and in post match interview,and I have read all of them this season, I have only heard him be fulsome in praise of another opponent once and I have seen similar high praise for the same team from one other rival coach, which is very unusual. They have underperformed so far, but I have noticed an upturn in fortune through the cup games and I am certain we can do well with them in the coming weeks, hopefully we can use this at half time today, but in case we cannot, I will hold off naming them as long as possible.
Needless to say they beat Ventforet Kofu 2-0 with both goals coming early, what Ficcadenti had actually said about Gamba after his team had beaten them 3-0 was: "They are a very strong team whose current points total doesn't match their quality, they have a lot of technically skilled players, in particular the two central midfielders are very good." They have quality across the middle of the park, not least with evergreen Yasuhito Endo who has returned from the World Cup eager to put a disappointing time there behind him and all the national team players have returned to action with a positive attitude and the huge work ethic we expect from them. Anyway, an Endo-less Gamba avenged that loss to Tokyo 3-1 in the cup a week later and are a team we need to keep an eye on now. They lose Shu Kurata today,who scored a very good goal at the weekend, but on the plus side, were able to largely go through the motions for the last hour in that game and save energy for today. They are very motivated to follow up and take that momentum into the derby game with Vissel Kobe on Sunday.
Striker Takashi Usami is in exceptional form right now and you know I loves me a front man in form and new Brazilian signing Patric is hungrily sitting on the bench waiting for his opportunity and suddenly this looks a team we can rely upon for goals.
They won that 4-0 , going with an ultra attacking line up , Patric (see above) scored and ahead of the match in Kobe I said ..... They look an unstoppable force right now with goals coming from everywhere, They have posted two wins and a draw , scoring eight goals on their last three top flight visits to Kobe and have already beaten the hosts in a cup game this season.Big loss for Kobe is right back Ryo Okui who is suspended, even more so against the marauding offensive line of Gamba, hosts have lost just one in eight (four wins) when he plays, just two wins in eight starts without him, he only missed two games last season (40 starts) and Gamba will be surely targeting that flank.
Gamba tore Vissel to shreds with a brace of goals from Usami and Patric, to have one striker in form is great, two in a team playing well and brimful of confidence is incredible. Marimos are unbeaten in five, but have conceded in all four games since the restart, trailed in two and drawn with three teams in Nagoya, Cerezo and Kobe who all had problems of sorts. Hard to see them keeping Gamba out for too long today, I feel we could see goals and that the "over" is on the big side, but in addition to their fine offensive play, home keeper Masaaki Higashiguchi has been getting rave notices this last month and I will settle for ......
1.5 units Gamba Osaka -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.
Albirex Niigata- Cerezo Osaka
We have not bet them yet, but have discussed Albirex Niigata as another potential improver, with opposing coaches singling them out for praise in recent weeks and they are, like FCT and Gamba (until recently), playing much better than recent results suggest. I did give them a mention last week .....By the way, I have another team we need to watch and that is Albirex Niigata who have also been playing MUCH better than recent results suggest (outplayed Urawa and FCT for significant periods) and we just need their period of bad luck to end, they could win today at Kawasaki Frontale and the hosts have played three games since the re-start as opposed to Albirex's two, that gave Frontale an edge at first, but today, with this a fourth start inside 12 days, I am not quite so sure. However, you know how things are when they are not going your way, you need something to break in your favour and I think personally, I would like to see them snatch a point or better before getting too involved.
They lost that 1-0, but created plenty of decent chances to score and despite saying I wanted to wait for a positive result, sometimes odds dictate otherwise and I like the quote today against a Cerezo team who are also misfiring and who have lost on their last two trips to Niigata. The visitors have finally waved goodbye to Yoichiro Kakitani , now at Basle and Diego Forlan has yet to offer them too much more than PR value for his huge salary.
1.25 units Albirex Niigata -0.25 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
Kashima Antlers- Sanfreece Hiroshima
We were 5-0 with bets on Sanfreece games this season before we backed them on the road at Omiya Ardija a fortnight ago, that record looked safe as they raced into a 3-0 lead at the break, but somehow they managed to turn three points into one against the woeful hosts and that has since been made all the more painful and frustrating by Omiya losing 3-1 at home to basement club Tokushima Vortis last week and doubly so by Hiroshima winning 5-2 next time out !
Ahead of the restart after the World Cup I wrote ...
Despite making it through the group stage of the AFC Champions League, where they surprising lost to Western Sydney Wanderers, Sanfreece Hiroshima have made no secret of the fact that their target this season was a third straight J-League title and with no distractions and a good schedule to restart their campaign ( three home games and a trip to to struggling Omiya Ardija), they will be fully motivated to hit the ground running.
It will be tough for them as key veteran midfielder (there are a lot of older overseas players in J-League) Mihael Mikic is out, they have performed a little (not much) better in the couple of games he missed this season, but you can see from the AFC preview (he was left at home to rest) how key they view him. Looking at last season's stats, it is hardly surprisng, with Mikic in the starting eleven they were 18-5-4 averaging 2.19 points per game, when he played 30 minutes or less 1-1-5 , which is 1.62 ppg fewer and he has been essential on the right side of their preferred Christmas tree formation.
Ahead of the Omiya game we again discussed the loss of the Croatian midfielder ....
The visitors are going to have to find a way to win without Mikic (see above) and soon, as he looks set to miss a couple of months, they were only a minute or so from holding onto their lead in midweek which offers hope. They are meeting a weaker opponent today and one who is looking to make changes to a starting eleven which has been underperforming for over a year and that might take time and Hiroshima will have a huge advantage today with the extra 90 minutes of game time under their belts.
They have scored nine goals in their last three starts, but only won one of those (two draws) and it is clear to see where their problems lie at present and that is keeping a clean sheet.However, the goals are flowing and this is a venue they have done well offensively in recently with seven goals on their last three visits, winning both league and cup games last season. The amazing news is that Mikic made an early return from injury last week and played 20 minutes from the bench, of course he cannot yet be 100% match fit, but he will surely have come on for that and with another 7 days of training under his belt, be ready for more game time and just having him in the squad, is a major boost. Hiroshima already trail leaders Urawa Reds by nine points and will not want that lead to increase before they travel to Saitama in two weeks time.
Antlers have been strugggling for goals of late, just 7 in 7 starts and their only win in that sequence was by the minimum margin at home to basement club Tokushima Vortis and their free scoring early season form looks a thing of the past now that scouting reports are in and teams have learned how to stifle the supply to lone striker Davi,in Antlers double pivot formation. Sanfreece look ideally set up to do likewise and any involvement from Mikic is a major bonus.
1.5 units Sanfreece Hiroshima +0.25 ball 1.93 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
FC Tokyo- Vegalta Sendai (written 27/07)
It would not be J-League without a look at FC Tokyo and I strongly feel it is time for them to put in another commanding home performance. In midweek I wrote ....
We touched upon Tokyo's 1-1 home draw with Kashima Antlers ...
The last six h2h meetings have produced 29 goals with all having at least four goals, both teams have scored in the last eight games in Tokyo and Antlers have scored two or more here in 7 of 9 visits.
We discussed FCT a lot before the break when they were a mixture of unplayable and unwatchable ! It is a little pointless reproducing those notes, as like FCT and wildly optimistic coach Massimo Ficcadenti, whom I must admit to having a soft spot for, they are hugely unpredictable. However, I am sure they will get it right and they will be buoyed by scoring 8 goals in the Emperors Cup last weekend, it was little more than target practice and form in those matches means little, but it can only be positive. The hosts will be all out for the three points and Antlers really cannot play any other way, with the visitors already having scored a J-League high 16 road goals and posted five away wins.
Only two goals in that game, which was disappointing, but there were a LOT of chances after the hosts came out of their shell. they started perhaps too defensively with the "tinkerman" coach Massimo Ficcadenti clearly working on even more formations in training and claiming that his team is ready to "mature further". Personally I think he should be looking for a little more stability and consistency of results , but this is clearly a team with a lot of potential and they could go on a big run, sometime soon. Antlers coach Toninho Cerezo said that he felt it was a great game and praised the preparation FCT had done, with the hosts 4-3-3 formation perfectly set up to nullify the threat from his team, which meant a major tactical change and re think for the visitors after the break.
FCT have served us OK on the road with the draw no ball option and this is a venue where they tend to do well, scoring on their last 7 visits , including winning the last two with a 5-0 goal difference and I like their chances of a hat-trick.
They won that 1-0 , scoring early via Muto and defending pretty much for the last hour , with a disciplined high defensive line, they were determined to collect the three points after they felt they had given two away last weekend and it showed, with a very committed performance. They did have chances to score on the break to seal the game and missed one golden opportunity, Mr Ficcadenti was his usual self afterwards and said apart from the failure to take the second goal " I felt our performance tonight was excellent, flawless in fact."
FCT have dominated this series and are 6-1-0 in the last seven h2h meetings in the capital, with five cleans sheets and only conceded in two very big wins ( 4-1, 6-2), they will be without striker Edu today, who is suspended after his latest yellow card in midweek, but they are creating plenty of chances from their midfield and it is not an overriding concern for me, Vegalta look vulnerable defensively right now, they were unable to win despite leading three times in midweek when they were largely gifted all three goals by slipshod defending and were themselves very slow to the second ball and to close players down. Coach Ficcadenti watches a lot of the opposition and is sure to have picked up on this.
1.25 units FC Tokyo -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line/Sportmarket.
