League 2 Playoff: (written May 9th)
Stevenage-Southend United
Argyle and Wanderers meet tonight in a match I find very tough to call, the other two clash at Broadhall Way tomorrow. Recent League 2 playoffs have favoured the teams who either came with a late run, or who were not overly involved in the automatic promotion race, Fleetwood Town bucked that trend last year, but the four previous winners had all finished 6th or 7th, including Stevenage when they won in 2011. That year they were 17th on New Year's Day, but came on strong through the second half of the campaign and this has played out similarly, having been 15th, some nine points off post season pace in early December yet all but sealing a playoff spot with four rounds to play and as a good luck omen, they finished sixth in both seasons.
The return of boss Graham Westley (pictured) has been key to their resurgence, he knows the club inside out and is in his third term as manager, in the first, he saved them from relegation out of the Conference when it looked a lost cause and within a year to the playoff final. During his second tenure, he won back to back promotions, firstly into the Football League and then Ligue 2 and his team, on limited resources were pushing for the Championship when he left for the very big job (comparatively) at Preston North End. He returned two years ago and the team were relegated in his first full season in charge, but that was always going to be tough, he had to trim the budget and his training methods which take some getting used to, are not for everyone and the players have to buy into it. He believes football is a job like any other and amongst other things, that players should work a 40 hour week, with double training sessions and huge fitness demands on the squad. His approach is well documented and was hugely criticised , but very effective during his second spell, that was, put simply, play at a tempo that no opposition could match through 60 minutes, usually take the lead through this period and then use every trick in the book to hold on, feign injury, take extended drink breaks, anything to waste time and secure the win. They were not popular and hugely frustrating to watch, especially if they were playing your team.
The current squad might not be as ruthless or cynical as that group, but you will never see a team that Westley has had time to build who are not physically strong , very fit and with a good game plan, the manager is a clever guy , independently wealthy away from football and will always do things his own way. Anyway, he has a winning mentality, a lot of lower and non league post season experience and has got the club turned around , back on track and more importantly, singing from the Westley hymnbook .There are unbeaten in their last five starts against top 7 teams, including wins over Southend ( 4-2) and Plymouth and away draws at both Wycombe and champions Burton Albion. In the win here over United they blew the visitors away over the last 30 minutes and will take positive mental memories from that game into tomorrow's first leg.
Southend would have sealed an automatic promotion spot on the final day with a win at a Morecambe side who had nothing to play for, in front of travelling support of almost 2,300 which made up 54% of the attendance and that is a lot of baggage to bring into the post season. I was going to take something to win the playoffs on Stevenage, but will instead bet a little stronger on them to take a lead to Roots Hall, although that is not essential, it would be the easier route to progression he said stating the obvious ! It is six years since we had a draw in one of these League 2 playoff games, seven home and three away wins in the interim and this is the league with the lowest number of drawn matches anyway, so I am opting for the straight win......1.75 units Stevenage -0.5 ball 2.50-2.70 general quote.
Good Luck.