France: Ligue 1 betting preview: Sochaux - Evian
The situation is clear cut here, if Sochaux win and only win, they are safe and Evian will be relegated, any other result will see the visitors preserve their top flight status.
Evian :Jesper Hansen, Bertrand Laquait, Johann Durand, Kassim Abdallah, Cédric Cambon, Youssouf Sabaly, Jonathan Mensah, Cédric Mongongu, Aldo Angoula, Olivier Sorlin, Djakaridja Koné, Eric Tié Bi, Ilan Boccara, Facundo Bertoglio, Cédric Barbosa, Modou Sougou, Daniel Wass, Kévin Bérigaud,Marco Ruben, Nicolas Benezet, Clarck Nsikulu.
Good Luck.
Reims: Agassa, Placide – Weber, Conte, Mandi, Turan, MFulu – Albaek, Oniangue, Diego, Fortes, Devaux, Krychowiak, Ayite – Atar, De Preville, Charbonnier, Courtet.
Sochaux: .Pelé, Pouplin – Faussurier, Carlão, L.Zouma, C.Kanté, Marange, Corchia, Sunzu – Prcic, Ilaimaharitra, Contout, Sinkala, Boukari, Roudet, Guerbert – J.Ayew, Mayuka, Bakambu
Very briefly, I like both to score here and feel it is over priced at circa 2.25. The pair shared four goals in the reverse fixture and Sochaux are in far better goalscoring form now and making a good fist, albeit late in the day, of trying to preserve their top flight status. They have five goals and seven points from their last three games and I do not view them as a forlorn hope tonight at around 12-1 and I might risk something small on them. Monaco have hung onto PSG's coattails and all credit to them for that, but the title race looks over now and they are not playing at their best currently.
Last week we discussed Sochaux's home win over Bordeaux ....
"Sochaux have at long last found a little form, winning their last two home games and getting a valuable 2-2 draw ( at least for us) at Valenciennes last week. They had previously beaten Guingamp 1-0 ahead of which I wrote .....
"This is all about motivation for me, Sochaux gave themselves a bit of a survival lifeline with that very hard fought win over Nantes two weeks ago, they could not follow up at Lille last week in a 2-0 defeat, but few expected them to and if they are to survive, it will by virtue of winning home games, anything gained on the road against quality opposition, a bonus. The goals there came 90 minutes apart, new keeper Yohann Pelé had to pick the ball out of his net after just three minutes, but did not do so again until deep in injury time, he played well and the team stayed competitive, they hardly deserved a point, but came close to getting one twice after the break, spirit was good and this is not a team who have given up hope just yet. However, the match today and trip to Valenciennes next weekend are going to largely decide their fate, they need a minimum four points and the win will certainly be easier this evening. Guingamp have had a pleasing return to top flight football, but are far from safe five points above the drop zone and are one of the very few clubs that Sochaux can realistically hope to catch. To which end, I would argue that this is the home team's cup final and a must win fixture. The visitors played a cup game against low level opposition in Corsica just three days ago, they treated the game seriously, nine of the starters from the last league game played and after the long trip south, now have to travel over 900 km West to the Swiss border. That is a gruelling schedule, whilst Sochaux have had a free seven days to fully focus on this fixture. No real analysis, they have shown a little fight and again, this is all about motivation, both teams have it to a degree, but for Sochaux lose and they can start planning to play Creteil instead of PSG next season. Odds are decent and they will leave nothing on the pitch, where incidentally it will be just above freezing and feel colder, which will be a bit of a shock to the system for the visitors after a midweek trip to balmy L'Ile -Rousse."
They are still eight points from safety and their next two road games are at Monaco and St Etienne, so hard to see how they will get out of trouble if they do not collect maximum points tonight."
Monaco conceded two to Reims in their last home game and again at St Etienne last week and are without veteran defender Éric Abidal (24-0-0) today and significantly one the three matches he has missed this season ( just one win), was that reverse fixture which ended 2-2. I have seen 7.5 for Sochaux to score twice and that is my kind of price for something that happened in Monaco's last home start and in the reverse fixture, but officially I will opt for 1.5 units both teams to score 2.20-2.25 general quote, bigger in a place or two.
That ended 2-1 , OK for us, but Sochaux were unfortunate IMO not to have at least scored twice, they hit the woodwork and had quite a few attempts on goal. They got incredibly frustrated, with striker Jordan Ayew getting a needless red card, he will be suspended today and will be missed, although he has only contributed one goal since his loan move from Marseille. Left winger Sébastien Roudet (20-0-3) is also banned, but at this stage of the season and in Sochaux's position, I am less concerned with team news, more with motivation and desire and the hosts have plenty of each, sitting eight points shy of survival and fighting for their lives.
Lorient won for the first time in seven starts at home to St Etienne last week, that put them in midtable safety and their very strong home form, will be enough to ensure another season of top flight football. They are not the best of travellers and have lost 17 of their last 25 Ligue 1 away starts, they have not won here in eight visits and arrive without left winger Maxime Barthelmé (13-1-1), fringe striker Gilles Sunu and most imprtantly, left back Raphaël Guerreiro (26-0-1) and top scorer Vincent Aboubakar (28-12-6). That leaves them weakened on the left flank and Aboubakar has scored or assisted in 9 of Lorient's ten wins this season, in their sole three road wins, he has scored four goals and assisted with another. A massive game for Sochaux, especially with the two teams immediately above them meeting each other (they cannot both win !) . 1.75 units Sochaux -0.25 ball 2.31 asian line/Ibramarket.
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