Fairly low key day for a Sunday yesterday, three football and one golf previews, way off with the latter of those, but a decent day nonetheless. The full subscriber newsletter is reproduced below, as a sample of a quiet weekend's output.
Let's start with a reminder that there is just the one newsletter scheduled for today, we will be back to normal next weekend and have more time to cover things in our normal depth.
Serie A: Catania-Lazio
Catania did us a favour by beating Bologna around the turn of the year, when I wrote .....
Season is virtually on the line here for Catania, already five points adrift of Bologna and safety, failue to win today is going to make things very difficult. They have resigned Francesco Lodi from Genoa, he was a key player (33 appearances -6 goals-7 assists in 2012-13) in the side which finished 8th last season and which won 12 home games and the beauty with this deal, is that he should slot right back in immediately.The good news doesn't end there, central defender Nicolás Spolli returns from suspension and their Argentine offensive quartet of Gonzalo Bergessio (11-1-1), Lucas Castro (15-3-1), Sebastián Leto (12-1-1) and Pablo Barrientos (11-3-0) are all available for the first time in months.
Team news is nowhere near as good for Bologna, they remain without young Danish central defender Frederik Sörensen ( 9-0-0 and are 1-2-5 in his absence), right back György Garics (16-1-2....without a win in 7 without him) is suspended, along with Alessandro Diamanti (15-4-3) who makes the visitors tick and is a big loss.Despite their lowly position, Catania have only lost here to Juve, Inter and Milan in the last 18 months and perhaps for the first time this campaign look like their old selves. A very good opportunity to kick start a survival push
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They then lost a little unluckily in Bergamo to Atalanta afterwards and then at home to Fiorentina, but got back on track with a 0-0 draw at Inter, which was followed by points in a home game (3-3) with relegation rival Livorno and in a goalless draw in Parma last weekend. Catania felt robbed in the Livorno game, with the visitors scoring an "offside" goal and being awarded a hotly disputed penalty and the club President and coach were both given red ards for lengthy protests.Anyway, overall, their level of form is much improved , those last two road cleansheets make good reading and they deserved more at Parma, where they were twice denied by the woodwork..
Speaking of the coach, Rolando Maran who led Catania to their record points total in Serie A last season,paid the price for his own success after a poor start to this campaign, but is back at the helm in the latest managerial merry go round, which just doesn't happen elsewhere, coaches returning to clubs 2-3 times inside a season or two, is unheard of anywhere except Italy. Anyway, he looks the right man for the job and the comments about their home form in general ,remain, despite the loss to Fiorentina and the Livorno debacle.They are still bottom of the table, but are only two points behind Chievo who sit just outside the drop zone and today is a massive game in terms of survival and they need to collect something from every remaining home start, between now and the end of the season.
Sebastian Leto (see above) is missing again, along with goalkeeper Alberto Frison (he has started in 9 of the last 10 games... but a clean sheet in his absence last week) and fringe midfielder Sergio Almirón, in truth, nothing to worry us too much. Catania have a very solid 5-1-1 record at home in this fixture .
Lazio will be pleased with their point in the Rome derby last week, but barely deserved it and have a limited amount to play for domestically and I suspect we might only really see them raise their level of performance in the bigger fixtures and despite Italian clubs tending to underperform in the Europa League,for that to now be the focus for their season, especially with the final being played in Turin.
The Biancocelesti have collected 12 points from six starts in 2014, but are possibly playing a little below that level and are today without Hélder Postiga and midfielder Ederson (15-1-1), with Hernanes having moved on to Inter, that is important, the pair were both influential in the win in the reverse fixture with a goal each. However, this is more about need and desire and the motivation for Catania today is far greater IMO and I am very keen on them with the handicap start.
1.5 units Catania +0.25 ball 2.06 asian line/Ibramarket.
Catania: 21 Andujar, 35 Ficara, 22 Alvarez, 14 Bellusci, 34 Biraghi, 33 Capuano, 24 Gyomber, 6 Legrottaglie, 18 Monzon, 2 Peruzzi, 5 Rolin, 3 Spolli, 28 Barrientos, 19 Castro, 13 Izco, 10 Lodi, 8 Plasil, 15 Rinaudo,9 Bergessio, 23 Boateng, 7 Fedato, 26 Keko, 32 Petkovic.
Lazio : Marchetti, Berisha, Strakosha, Biava, Dias, Konko, Ciani, Cavanda, Cana, Novaretti, Radu,Ledesma, Gonzalez, Candreva, Biglia, Felipe Anderson, Onazi, Mauri, Lulic, Crecco, Perea, Keita, Klose, Kakuta.
In play: Lazio have conceded 50% of all away goals in the last 30 minutes of games
Ligue 1: Evian-Lille
My own personal jury is still out on Lille, they were on an incredible run earlier in the campaign and looked defensively very solid, but were at times relying heavily on goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama to get them out of trouble and he has had an incredible campaign, conceding just 14 goals in 24 Ligue 1 starts.
Evian are winless in eight league starts and sitting just outside the drop need to find a victory from somewhere and soon, a point at improving Montpellier last week gives them something to build on and points will be easier to come by this afternoon, than on the road at Bordeaux next time out. Hosts are without suspended central defender Jonathan Mensah (18-1-0) for the third game running and right back Kassim Abdallah (started the last two after arriving from Marseille last month) is injured, which weakens them defensively. On the plus side they have a free seven days to solely prepare for this. Lille had a midweek cup tie to play and needed extra time and penalties to see off Ligue 2 side Caen, they rested one or two there and the aim was to keep others on the bench, but eventually they were needed and nine players who started the last Ligue 1 game, played some part and with extra time, all played at least an hour or so, several all 120 minutes. They are a solid team when they stick to what they are good at, when they try to force things and open up a little more, they are out of their comfort zone, that might well be the case today as they have named a very offensive looking squad and I am far from certain that plays to their strengths. Having said that, they will get space to exploit today, with Evian missing key players at the back and opting to go for a more offensive formation, after playing with a sole striker for much of this season, now they are experimenting with two up top with support from midfield and it could work , or back fire. It does mean that we are likely to see a far more open game today than we would have expected a month or so ago. 1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.12 asian line/ Iibramarket.
Evian :Laquait, Hansen, Wass, Mongongu, Angoula, Sabaly, Ehret, Cambon, Sorlin, Koné, Barbosa, Bertoglio, Sougou, Ruben, Benezet, Bérigaud, Nsikulu, De Melo.
Lille: Vincent Enyeama, Steeve Elana,Djibril Sidibé, Marko Basa, Simon Kjaer, David Rozehnal, Pape Souaré, Adama Soumaoro, Rio Mavuba, Idrissa Gueye, Florent Balmont, Jonathan Delaplace, Soualiho Meïté, Salomon Kalou, Ryan Mendes, Ronny Rodelin, John Ruiz, Nolan Roux, Divock Origi
FA Cup: Sheffield United-Nottingham Forest
I guess both teams would like to win this, but priority for United has to be League 1 survival and Forest have a really good chance of claiming one of those automatic promotions spots and reaching the promised land of Premier League football and all the riches which come with it. The visitors meet the top two, Leicester City and Burnley in the next six days and I think they will be very conscious of that. This will also be their fourth straight tough road game inside eleven days , all played on very heavy pitches and stamina much be an issue.
Speaking of heavy pitches, United were meant to play a home league game with Brentford on Wednesday, the rumour was that the club were not too concerned about that being postponed and perhaps did not put in quite so much effort to get the match played as they might have done and wanted to focus on this fixture, so a clear indication that they will be giving this their full attention.
Forest are already a little short of numbers and will be mindful of those key matches ahead. Home boss Nigel Clough will be very motivated to beat his former club , not least because he and Forest manager Billy Davies have a little "history" and do not like each other, his side have already eliminated two top flight clubs from the competition and will not fear the visitors. This is all about priorities, Forest have three games in six days, in many ways, this is the least important and you can argue this is United's biggest game of the season, in terms of club size, not much between these two and a rare big day nowadays for the Blades at Bramall Lane. Both to score and possibly a replay. 1.25 units Sheffield United +0.25 ball 1.96 asian line/Ibramarket.
USPGA Golf: Northern Trust Open
Leaderboard and in running action can be followed on the PGA website.
Very briefly, leader William McGirt is a non winner and has never previously led overnight ahead of the final round either, so I doubt he sleep particularly well last night. Most of you know my thoughts on that, the first win is always the hardest, especially once golfers are into their 30's and he is almost 35
No golfer has come from more than three strokes behind to win this season and whilst it will happen sooner rather than later, it might not be today and of those within three of the lead, I like the chances of Charlie Beljan, who is in a tie for second. He has a tour win to his name and came very close to a second here last year, losing in a playoff to John Merrick. He made a bad error on the second playoff hole (the tenth), he has played it in -1 this week and said that he knows how to play the hole now and will never hit a driver off the tee again. The tournament has a history of players finishing second one year and winning the next and if Beljan did likewise, he would be the sixth player to complete the feat.
Beljan is confident about his chances and feels he is very good over the weekend, he misses a lot of cuts, but once he makes the third round, tends to put in a big finish.
1 unit Charlie Beljan to win 8.0-10.0 general quote.
Next newsletter @ 10.00 UK time on Monday.
Good Luck.
