The race to Dubai

This is effectively the European Tour Money List race, key to winning, is form in the four WGC and four Grand Slam events, what happens outside of those is largely, although not entirely, irrelevant. Last year South African Branden Grace won four times on the European Tour and also posted two high finishes in big money events, yet couldn't break into the top five in the Race to Dubai and trailed winner Rory McIlroy by 3m euros, despite playing 11 events more. Grace actually played in twice as many tournaments ( 26 opposed to 13 ) as runner up Justin Rose, who earned 50% more prize money.

Top three in the "Race" in 2012 were McIlroy- Rose- Oosthuizen, in 2011 Donald-McIlroy-Kaymer, 2010 Kaymer-McDowell-Westwood and in 2009 Westwood- McIIroy-Kaymer. Prize money required each year to win has increased from 4.2m, through 4.4m, to 5.3m and up to 5.5m in 2012. Therefore, we know two things, it is going to be very hard for any newbie to break into this exclusive club as they will not have enough ranking points to qualify for all the big eight events and to win this, you are going to need to earn circa 5m euros, so, we are left with very few names. It is hard to see Rory McIlroy not going close, but the 23 year old world number one, who has just signed a ten year circa £160m contract with Nike will definitely not be playing anywhere just for the money and said last month "I've done my schedule. I'm sticking to it and I'm not letting anyone persuade me to go anywhere else,I've learned my lesson over the last couple of years. "He added that he intends to play less and concentrate on quality more than quantity, obviously in european terms he will play the big eight, but is very unlikely to match the 15 tournament starts he made last year. However, he will not need to and is certain to finish top three again, baring injury, but his odds are too low for me to wait 12 months for a payout, especially when they offer almost no value, but his claims are obvious and he is a worthy favourite.

Lee Westwood and Luke Donald seem sure to go well again, but the former has just moved to the US and we do not know exactly how that will impact upon his game, probably not by much, but what is certain, is that the year for both is, once again,  all about winning that elusive first major. The same is true of Justin Rose of course, but he is not quite under the same intense media pressure as the other two and he seems far more relaxed about the whole major "business", he spoke about this in early December when reflecting on a fantastic 2012 for him, both personally and as a pivotal part of the Ryder Cup team, where his singles win over Phil Mickelson was seen as key."Yeah it’s been amazing really, the reaction of everybody else when you are sort of wrapped up in the Ryder Cup itself it’s hard to realize how big it actually is. The people’s reactions in my part and the teams comeback has been amazing and I don’t think it has fully sunk in yet. I have been so busy after the Ryder Cup ,so I think it is a bottle of wine and the official DVD over the off-season to reflect on what we managed to achieve that day."

He said something very important about his approach to 2013, " I do not yet feel at the point where I can cut back on my schedule and just focus on the majors."

"I think I still want to become a prolific winner - winning 4,5,6 times a year. I will prepare hard for the majors this year. Get myself into a good frame of mind and I think if everything comes together, absolutlely my game is good enough to get the job done."

I like the sound of that, Rose was ultra consistent in the big 8 events last year, finishing 33-1-8-21-MC-5-3-24, winning the WGC Cadillac and missing out in the Open over the weekend, so still room to improve and few would bet against him repeating that big win somewhere along the line. The Open returns to Muirfield where he was third after R3 as a 22 yo in 2002, so that should suit him better than Royal Lytham did last year and he is a far more complete golfer than a decade ago and at 32 years old, is just about entering his prime.

He has won for the last three seasons and was ranked number one on the PGA Tour for greens in regulation in 2012, his putting was not as good last year, but if that falls into place in 2013 he is capable of multiple wins and one of those could easily be another "biggie". Fred Albers of PGA Tour Radio said that he left Florida after the WGC Cadillac "thinking that Rose was the best player on Tour , " adding that "he easily has the game to win a major and is very tough mentally."

The mental side of all sport is big, but especially so in golf, where 90% of the game is played between the ears, Rose has spent a lot of time working on this part of the game and has got a fantastic team around him, whilst the golf pretty much takes care of itself at present, he likes to surround himself with people who make sure that he is in the correct frame of mind, who can bring clarity and perspective to his thought process, game and practice. It is also key that he personally and actively, sought out all of "Team Rose",  and some he had to go to great lengths to convince to join him, but now coach Sean Foley, mental guru Dr Gio Valiante, caddy Mark Fulcher and fitness coach Justin Buckthorp are all integral to the winning process, Rose believes in all of them and has worked as hard as any golfer over the last couple of years and is now starting to reap the rewards.

I have not been able to get confirmed details of JR's schedule for 2013, it doesn't really matter, he is going to play in the big 8 and will definitely play the big European late Spring events which he loves. He is very committed to golf in China, so will play an additional event alongside the HSBC and has agreed to play in the Abu Dhabi event in January for the first time, so he is at least playing as many and more likely more qualifying events than last year. Rose played 28 events last year worldwide, finished top 20 in 19, top 10 in 15 including two wins and is going to pick up a nice cheque wherever he turns up. This could be his real breakthrough year which seems an odd thing to say about the number four ranked golfer in the world and at 10-1 he is a very nice price to bridge that gap on Rory Mc who might be more concerned with Tiger hunting than the money list. 1.5 units each way Justin Rose Race to Dubai 11.0, one quarter the odds a place 123,  available pretty much across the board.  That is three units staked in total, a second or third place ( he was runner up last year), would return 5.25 units.

Good Luck

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