We looked at how the opening rounds of Ligue 2 had played out a fortnight ago .....
Ligue 2 draws are running at 38.18% through 11 rounds, which equates to odds of 2.62, it was a similar story last season 37% after 10 rounds, but down to sub 32% by Christmas, a figure it stayed at through the rest of the campaign, this is a standard trend in this tightest of leagues with matches opening up quite a bit through the second series of ten games and we can expect that to be the case over the next couple of months and as a result, the number of goals, which are already some 0.31 per game down on last season, to increase.
Last Friday, I wrote ......The (previous) round produced only two draws and whilst the goals didn't exacly flow, it certainly feels like we are on the right track in terms of these stats.
Round 13 saw 7 home and three away wins, so, no draws and an average of 2.5 goals per game and again, this highlights the value of using these trends as starting points, as the stats can really only go one way, the number of draws in one league , or home wins in another (like we recently discussed in J-League), are probably not going to drop/increase by 10% over a full season, that is not impossible, but highly unlikely and the far more obvious conclusion about what has occurred over a period of games, is that it is a temporary blip and the likely conclusion, is that they will even out, more in line with traditional numbers, over the rest of the campaign.
Nimes- Niort
I previewed this fixture at the end of last season and those notes are reproduced at the foot of the page, we were firmly with Nimes and they won 4-1 and are 4/4 at home to Niort, games in which they have scored a whopping 13 goals.
Ahead of this season I wrote .....They managed to secure their safety with a bit to spare and with Marsiglia (see above) having had the whole summer to switch things around, Gragnic and Bouby (see Auxerre) have left with one or two others and in have come a mixture of experience and youth .Toifilou Maoulida has scored a sackful of goals in the top flight, but even at veteran stage knows where the back of the net is and has scored 13 goals in each of his last two campaigns at this level. Feteh Harek has played 57 games for Bastia in the top flight over the last two seasons and was virtually ever present in their two promotion campaigns. Fabien Barillon was Istres most important defender and wanted by several teams, Argentine Pedro Galván is a dark horse, he has signed from Israeli football, where he scored a mountain of goals from midfield and Larry Azouni is a French U20 international on loan from Marseille. They look to have a few goals in them and I am keen to see Galvan and Maoulida at this level.
Prior to a recent road win at Tours I updated ....They are 2-6-2 this season, coach Marsiglia has moved on over a difference of opinion and has been replaced by José Pasqualetti who did a wonderful job for several years in terribly difficult circumstances at Istres and they remain a team with potential in this division and I am sure that we will do well with them over the coming months.
They have lost their way over their last two games, losing both without scoring, but this is a good match up for them, they need to get back on track to avoid getting pulled back into a relegation scrap and IMO are better than we have seen so far. Niort are very much a "traditional" Ligue 2 team, good at home, always happy to settle for a point on the road. That might see you survive , but not thrive in modern day L2 and we touched upon this ahead of a recent trip to Troyes .....Niort are very much a home team and do not really win their share on the road, they lost 4-1 here in May, were 3-0 down early and I feel there is a good chance we will see the hosts again come out firing and seize the early advantage here. The visitors do not have a lot of depth amongst one of the smallest L2 squads and it is hard to make a case for the quick turnaround favouring them against one of the strongest and who, rightly or wrongly, took the options to rest one or two key players on Friday. Very little rotation for Niort, who really have to avoid injuries to stay competitive in this division, which will handicap them at some stage across 38 rounds. Home win.
They are coming off a 4-1 home defeat to Nancy last Saturday, Nancy are a good team ,but in truth, it was a shameful performance from Niort, two of the visitors goals came after they were reduced to ten men (they played an hour a man short) and they could have easily scored six. Nancy were first to every ball in midfield and Niort were outmuscled in 50/50 tackles time and time again and too many players were unmarked/ unchallenged, even in the penalty area, on that showing, they looked relegation fodder and need to show me a lot more before I could even consider backing them this season.
1.5 units Nimes -0.25 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.
I will keep this very small as I do not know how many of you will be able to get on, but Nimes to score over 2.5 goals is available at a general 6.0-7.0 and I will suggest 0.5 units, they have scored at least three in the last four h2h meetings here and Niort have conceded four twice in six outings and confidence looked very fragile last week after they fell behind.
Nîmes : Michel, Gallon - Cordoval, Barrillon, Sartre, Harek, Marin, Azouni, Briançon, Lacourt, Parpeix, Kovacevic, Hsissane, Robail, Nouri, Koura, Maoulida, Bobichon.
Niort : Delecroix, Roche - Malcuit, Bong, Bernard, Sans, Barbet - Koukou, Diaw, Roye, Martin, Houla, Rocheteau - Dona Ndoh, Ba, Koné.
Good Luck.
France Ligue 2 : Nimes - Niort (written 28/02/14)
Very big game for Nimes, three of the their next four starts are on the road against strong home teams and the other is a visit from top three side Lens. The hosts are in decent form and have lost just once in seven starts, despite which , they are only a single point above the drop zone and two adrift of the teams above them in the table. We hinted at this likely upturn in fortune on January 17th, when I wrote ...
We have now reached the half way stage in Ligue 2 and several teams will be looking to replicate their strong finishes to last season and we will be looking at one or two of these over the coming weeks, starting with Nimes today. Last season they collected 33 points over the second half of the campaign, only three of those came over the final four games, once their promotion chance had gone, but from January through to the end of April they were as strong as anyone and playing promotion level football. I suspect this will have been drummed into them over the Christmas break and by their new coach and they could hardly have got off to be a better start last week, when we discussed them ahead of their 3-1 win at Laval .... "Hard not to see Nimes getting some joy offensively ,they are battling for survival, four points from safety and this is a game they dare not lose. New coach Rene Marsiglia is looking to resurrect his career domestically after returning from the UAE, he knows how to keep a club up, after saving Nice in 2012 and looks a good appointment. He will be buoyed by Vincent Gragnic (10-2-2) being passed fit to join the squad. I take the new coach effect to work and a hard earned point or better for the visitors, who have lost just once in six visits here and kept a cleansheet in 3 of the last 4."
Those three points were not enough to take them out of the drop zone, but three more this evening probably will and then they could start to look upwards. Hosts get Mouritala Ogunbiyi and Romain Sartre back today, two of their more experienced players and look as strong as at any time this season, with that confidence building win behind them and a highly motivated coach looking to re-establish himself, I strongly favour them to beat the poor travelling visitors.
I am not overly concerned with team news for motivated teams at this stage of the season, it is more about desire and that, allied with a little form is good enough for me. Niort are in great form themselves and an eight match unbeaten run has taken them onto the edge of the promotion places. However, they are stronger at home , lost here heavily last season and arrive without injured right winger Luigi Glombard (15-4-1), they have won just 2 from 11 when he plays 20 minutes or less, yet won 8 from 14 when he plays an hour or more. Hugely experienced Senegalese midfielder Mouhamadou Diaw (23-2-2) is also missing through suspension and the pair will be missed. 1.5 units Nimes -0.25 ball 2.00 asian line/Ibramarket.
Nîmes : Merville, Michel - Benmeziane, Hsissane, Bouby, Cissokho, Cordoval, Fanchone, Gragnic, Koura, Kovacevic, Ogounbiyi, Omrani, Poulain, Robail, Sartre.
Niort : Delecroix, Roche - Lahaye, Letzelter, Bong, Pallois, Chelle, Bernard - Fleurival, Koukou, Roye, Martin - Houla, Lafourcade, Mayi, Sala.
