Today is more a day to be savoured, I am just going to discuss the Europa League final and we are already guaranteed a profit of some sort and it is not often you can say that, so we might as well enjoy the situation and the game.
We have backed Benfica outright in each of the last two seasons @ circa 25-1+ and 11-1 respectively, they have made the final both years and those two previews are at the foot of the email. On each occasion we have tied up a profit ahead of the decider, which is a nice position, but they were terrible unlucky last season (IMO) conceding a injury time goal to a Chelsea side who rode their luck at times. The Eagles deserve this title and have been very motivated to get it since elimination from the Champions League, where again they did not have the best of luck (see below) and if there is any justice in this world and that is often open to debate, they will be taking the trophy back to Lisbon tomorrow morning.
Last week we tied up a guaranteed return .....
Talking of which, next week we have the Europa League final, where we have 2.5 units staked, of which 1.5 is tied up in Benfica (see foot of the email) and I would like to tie up some of the "profit", I am not a great "hedger", but I do like to at least ensure we do not lose when we get into such a strong position with big odds, longer term bets. It worked in our favour to do so last year, with Benfica ( same competition), San Francisco 49ers (still hurts .............first and goal from the eight yard line and they do not run the ball , with the Ravens unable to stop them on the ground, sorry (!), I have come out in a cold sweat all over again....over that 26 point swing !) Brentford, Watford etc and I have to do likewise again.
This has nothing to do with how I see the final, which I will discuss next week, but is purely an economical decision, speaking in personal terms, I have staked 2.5 units and will get back 18 if Benfica win, I am betting 4 units on Sevilla at the best available quote.... 2.31 Pinnacle , 2.35 Sbobet/Ibramarket, 2.34 + on the exchanges ( depends what you pay in commission and other charges) , I do not see too much rush with this, the lines seem to edge back up all the time and oddsmakers seem to want to lay Sevilla (and I kind of agree, but it is not about that). The minimum I would currently take is 2.28, I might go down to 2.25 nearer the start if I have to, but I suspect over the next seven days it will be possible to get better. That will effectively tie up 2.5-3.0 points profit for me if the Spanish team win and 11.5 if Benfica take the title, as I hope and they certainly deserve it, they will . You have other options, you could choose to just get your stake back, or close the bet out completely and take circa 7-8 points profit now.
Just to be clear, as someone is sure to ask, I am only suggesting you bet Sevilla if you are already on Benfica, it is a covering bet, nothing more and that is why normal rules regarding staking, also do not apply.
As far as I am concerned that is done and for the rest of these notes, I only want to discuss today's game as I would any other. The Eagles are still on course to win four titles, the domestic league title and Taça da Liga are already in the trophy cabinet, they are in the
Taça de Portugal final on Sunday, where they face Rio Ave, a side they have beaten three times this season by a combined 9-1 goal difference and the most craved title of all, will be decided this evening. Benfica have not won a major european title for 52 years, since they were supposedly "cursed" by their former coach, after winning their second European Cup. They have made seven finals since and lost them all, so maybe eighth time lucky !
When your luck finally breaks and all gamblers know this, you tend to go on a bit of a run and it would be fitting that in the year they finally break that duck, they win everything !
We have already (below) discussed the merits of the team and they are now apparent to all, they lost Nemanja Matic to Chelsea and Óscar Cardozo is a shadow of his former self, but it is hard to see the Eagles as anything but stronger than last season and that is huge kudos to both coach Jorge Jesus and the infrastructure at the club, that they have a conveyor belt of talent through the Estádio da Luz.
Today they are without the suspended trio of Lazar Markovic, Enzo Perez and Eduardo Salvio which are big losses across the middle of the pitch, but they are a team with quality alternatives in all areas and the fact that Rodrigo, who has impressed me greatly, might have to settle for a place on the bench, highlights those.
Sevilla looked on the way out of the competition in the semi finals, robbing Valencia of a famous come from behind win, with a 95th minute goal which stunned the Mestalla crowd. They have had an incredible second half to their season and all credit to them for overcoming the loss of Jesus Navas, Alvaro Negredo and Gary Medel in pre-season, sales which were forced upon them by the financial situtaion at the club. To come so close to clinching a Champions League spot and also reach a european final was amazing, but there have been signs over the last couple of weeks that the campaign has caught up with them and this might be a game too far.
Kévin Gameiro (48-21-4 all comps) is a doubt, but would probably have to be crippled to miss out.
Having played their semi final second leg in this stadium just 13 days in a hostile atmosphere, Benfica will have a far more welcoming reception this evening from their army of supporters and the experience of playing here so recently, is a big advantage and of course, they have positive memories of that game.
If we were not involved already I would be happy to back Benfica at 2.25 + which I think is a very fair quote, I would be hard pressed to name 5-6 stronger teams in Europe than the Eagles this season, Sevilla would not be one and I feel they will finally get their just reward.
If you wanted a small interest at big odds, there is 5.0-6.0 for Benfica to score over 2.5 goals, this has potential to evolve into a shootout if we get a goal for either team inside 30 minutes or so and on the flip side ,if there was to be a runaway winner , I would strongly favour that to be the Portugese champions, we could take that for 0.5 units and many companies will trade this market in running.
Good Luck.
Europa League :Tottenham Hotspur- Benfica ( written March 13th)
We backed Benfica to win this competition last year at 25-1+ and they just came up short in the final, losing narrowly to Chelsea, we made money nonetheless, but it was disappointing. Many times we have spoken about the great respect that teams from the Iberian Peninsula show the competition and holding a commanding seven point lead in SuperLiga and with nearest challengers Sporting and Porto meeting on Sunday and Benfica not playing until Monday evening, they can afford to give this their undivided attention. Tottenham will be looking for a reaction, after losing so tamely at Stamford Bridge and will get a couple of key players back tonight, but have the North London derby with Arsenal on Sunday and everyone at the club, management, players and supporters, knows where their priorities lie.
Notes about the visitors and the competition in general from 13 months ago are reproduced below and bear repeating. If they get through this round, I would probably only rate Juventus and possibly Napoli as stronger, but would never even consider the former at current odds and both ( Fiorentina and Porto respectively) are not guaranteed to progress even from this round, likewise Sevilla who have two derby games to battle through. I favour Benfica here over the two legs and their current outright quotes are 2-3 points bigger than I made them, as always in my 100% (no profit margin) book.
Benfica messed up in the Champions League against Olympiakos, but were unfortunate not to qualify from a group containing PSG with ten points and I think that and how close they came last season, will make them hungrier. Odds are significantly lower than last year, but we are a round further on and their domestic position is much stronger, so I see the quote at least as good. Ten of the 14 who played against Chelsea in last year's final are in the squad this evening, big loss was Nemanja Matic who rejoined Chelsea, but they invested heavily (35m euros +) in some impressive young talent , including a trio of Serbian youngsters Ljubomir Fejsa ,Filip Djuricic and Lazar Markovic, who have all make the trip tonight. Djuricic was lined up by Newcastle as a replacement for Cabaye and Chelsea are said to be VERY keen on Markovic, who has done nothing but impress, if you saw their 2-0 defeat of Porto in January, you will remember him.
Prolific and star striker Óscar Cardozo has featured little this season after being plagued by back problems, but has returned to action recently and will be "fresh" for the remainder of the campaign. It is a sign of how many options they have, that he has been little missed, but few teams would not be improved by his addition.Jorge Jesus is a very good coach, his team are very disciplined and both press high and in midfield and Jesus is fantastic at spotting weak links in the opposition, which his players focus on . They break very quickly both from the back and midfield and are strong on both flanks, they have a lot of pace right through the team, even up front ,when Cardozo doesn't play, but other options when he does.
Two bets for me...1.25 units Benfica level ball 2.20 asian line/Ibramarket.
1.5 units Benfica to win the Europa League outright 11.0-12.0 general quote.
Benfica: Artur Moraes, Paulo Lopes , Oblak,Siqueira, Garay, Jardel, Sílvio, André Almeida, Steven Vitória ,Luisão, Salvio, Enzo Perez, Gaitán, Sulejmani, Fejsa, Djuricic, Ruben Amorim, André Gomes , Ivan Cavaleiro,Lima, Markovic, Rodrigo ,Cardozo.
Europa League: Thursday February 14th 2013
The last ten runnings of the Europa League/ UEFA Cup have seen seven winners from the Iberian Peninsula, five Spanish winners and two Portugese, they also supplied four losing finalists between them and all four semi finalists last year, the other three winners came from Eastern Europe, with two Russian winners and one from the Ukraine.
The Eastern teams are at a disadvantage early, coming off their winter break, but once we are in mid/late March, the pendulum swings the other way and they are fresher and at their peak, when others are beginning to tire.
This says as much about how these countries view the competition than anything else, they always show it respect and want to do well. Italian teams have a terrible record and since it was renamed the Europa League, only one has got past the Round of 32 and they lost in the Round of 16.
There are three Serie A teams left in the competition, Lazio, Napoli and Inter, but all have other major objectives for the season and I would offer a word of caution about all of them, not to say that they cannot win/ progress, just that I doubt that they are overly bothered.
The final is in Amsterdam this year and we can expect Ajax to be very motivated, but they might well have to see off Chelsea in the round of 16..
Atletico Madrid and Levante are the only two Spanish teams remaining and are drawn to face each other in the Round of 16, Atletico are looking to win for the third time in four years and given their league position, 12 points behind Barcelona and 11 clear of the fourth placed team, they already look assured of a Champions League spot for next season and I see no reason why they will not again be fully focused and this looks a decent draw for them, they have to be favourites IMO and 8.0 is a perfectly fair price, although a little skinny for my liking in a 32 runner race.
Despite facing a difficult tie with Bayer Leverkusen and going toe to toe with Porto for the domestic title, Benfica keep catching my eye at 29.0 in the outright market, they would play either Dynamo Kiev or Bordeaux next and I would favour them to beat either. They are unbeaten domestically, 14-4-0 and were a little hard done by in the Champions League. They look committed to this and all the big guns have travelled and they do have some very impressive weapons ....
Benfica: Artur Moraes, Paulo Lopes ,Bruno Varela, Melgarejo, Maxi Pereira, Luisinho, Luisão, Garay, Roderick Miranda , Jardel , André Almeida, Ola John, Enzo Perez, Salvio, Matic, Nicolás Gaitán, Urreta , André Gomes, Rodrigo, Lima, Cardozo.
They can field a starting eleven full of internationals and have a very nice mixture of experience and exciting young talent. Garay, Perez and Gaitan were all in the Argentine squad for the recent friendly in Stockholm, Salvio was in the squad for the previous international and is the youngest of the quartet. They have the class to go deep in this if they wish and the squad they have taken to Germany looks a statement of intent.
Leverkusen host Augsburg on Saturday afternoon, what is it with the Bundesliga ? Give them an extra day for goodness sake ! They are going to make some rotation between the two games of course, boss Sami Hyypiä admitted that and also that “a couple of our players have slight problems", refusing to give fiurther details. Almost four thousand visiting supporters have tickets for the game, which will make for a very good atmosphere, if pushed, I like the visitors with the handicap start, but must admit that +0.25 ball at sub 2.0 is not my favourite quote and if we are taking the outright anyway, I am happy to stick with that. 1 unit Benfica to win Europa League outright 26.0 + , there is bigger in a place or two.
